Macro view:
1. The main driver of stagflation pressure in the United States comes from energy. Before the liberalization of energy supply, the U.S. economy is under great pressure and economic policy is facing a dilemma. The huge inflationary pressure has restrained the growth of real consumption in the United States, and the pressure of energy prices has restrained the growth of residents’ income. At the same time, it has expanded the pressure of residents’ expenditure, and the overall economic expectation has deteriorated.
2. After the adjustment of energy policies in Europe, the growth rate of global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate upward. Under the background of relatively stable energy prices, China’s exports are expected to exceed expectations.
3. China’s steady growth will continue to develop, manufacturing and consumption are expected to take the lead in stabilizing and recovering, and investment will gradually bottom out.
Market view:
1. The expectation of steady growth rises, and the time window for the index to stabilize and recover opens.
2. The growth sector has entered the period of strategic layout. It needs to rebound in the short term, with appropriate cost performance in the medium term and benefiting from the slowdown of economic growth in the long term.
3. The long-term coexistence and steady growth with the virus are expected to improve the medium and long-term expectation of consumption.
Optimistic about the sector:
1. Be optimistic about new energy, food and beverage, coal, military industry and real estate property leaders of central enterprises.
2. Be optimistic about CSI 300, Hong Kong stock Internet technology index and Nasdaq 100 index.
Market resumption: the financial style rose this week, while the cyclical and stable style weakened; Most of the industries at Shenwan level fell, with steel, public utilities and environmental protection industries leading the decline.
Index performance: in addition to the gem index rising by 1.81%, the main market indexes continued to fall this week, led by the CSI 500. SSE 50, CSI 300, quana, Kechuang 50, SSE Composite Index and CSI 500 fell by 0.77%, 0.94%, 1.31%, 1.45%, 1.77% and 2.19% respectively.
Style performance: all large, medium and small markets fell, medium and low value sectors continued to fall, and high value sectors rebounded slightly. This week, large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks fell by 0.39%, 1.01% and 1.55% respectively. In the valuation sector, the medium valuation sector and the undervalued sector fell by 1.85% and 0.79% respectively, and the overvalued sector rebounded by 1.08%.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of major indexes increased month on month. Except for CSI 500, the turnover rate of major indexes increased month on month. There is obvious differentiation in the activity of industry transactions. This week, northward capital continued to flow out. During the week, the top three main inflow industries of land stock connect are: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances and mechanical equipment; The net outflow of computer, medicine and biology, food and beverage industries is large. The number of shares held by the northbound capital industry increased week on week. The top three are: architectural decoration, power equipment and media industry; The top three decreasing industries are non bank finance, banking and computer industry. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option increased by 0.15 percentage points, and the current value is 22.17%; The current value of the standard & Poor’s 500 volatility (VIX) index is 23.87, down 6.88 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is currently – 0.60%, up 0.03 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 84%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.94%, up 0.07 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 91%, and has remained up for five consecutive weeks. Recently, the market risk appetite has continued to cool, which continues to put pressure on the A-share market.
Risk tips
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected; Intensifying geopolitical conflicts, etc.
