Macro communication and Thinking: which is more credible, macro or micro?
The micro fluctuation is violent and the reflection is more sensitive. The economy had a good start in the first two months of this year, but this largely exceeded market expectations. The situation reflected in some micro data deviated from the macroeconomic trend. It should be acknowledged that although micro data often fluctuate violently, they are more sensitive to the economic situation. The trend of the stock market since the beginning of the year also shows that the market seems more willing to believe the economic picture depicted by micro data.
Is the macro data wrong this time? In fact, it is not always true: first, the base disturbance caused by the impact of the epidemic will amplify the fluctuation of macro data. From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, the quarter on quarter growth rate decreased directly from 2.6% to 0.3%. Therefore, the data at the beginning of this year also faced the situation of “low base” more or less; Secondly, the dislocation factors of the Spring Festival will also interfere with the distribution of macro data at the beginning of the year in each month. For example, the growth rate of personal income tax income in the first two months of this year was significantly high, partly due to the dislocation of the warehousing time of year-end bonus caused by the Early Spring Festival holiday; Finally, macro data is not “omniscient”, and its limitations are determined by the scope and methods of statistics.
Continuous deviation requires vigilance, indicating significant structural changes. In fact, the short-term deviation between macro and micro data is not uncommon, but the sustainability is often not strong, and finally we have to return to the reflection of the real economic situation. Micro data is also easy to fall into the misunderstanding of “generalizing”. If there is a continuous deviation between macro and micro data, special vigilance is needed, often because significant changes in structure are not “detected” by micro data. For example, in 2017, the growth rate of real estate sales in key cities continued to be lower than that in the whole country, which was driven by the monetization of shed reform for the real estate demand of third and fourth tier cities.
Efforts are still needed to stabilize the economy, and residents are leveraging again. Judging from the current situation, the momentum of economic recovery may not be solid, which is also the reason why the meeting of the gold stability Committee emphasized “effectively invigorating” the economy in the first quarter. The steady growth policy will not withdraw, but will further strengthen its support. The improvement of the real estate side will be one of the key points for the policy to focus on economic stability, and residents will leverage or make a comeback.
One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the inflection point of the epidemic situation in China has not yet appeared, and Pfizer oral drugs are approved to be imitated. As of March 17th, the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan had more than 10 thousand new confirmed cases in one week and 32 thousand cases in the latest week. This round of epidemic situation in China is fierce, showing the characteristics of many points, wide range and frequent occurrence, which brings great pressure to the epidemic prevention work. In the last week, about 11.76 million new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide, an increase of 8.6% over the previous week. New diagnoses in Europe are on the rise, while South Korea and Vietnam have not yet peaked. There were about 35000 new deaths from covid-19 pneumonia worldwide, down 23.6% from last week. New deaths in South Korea hit new highs. French scientists confirmed the existence of deltacron variant for the first time through genome sequencing. Europe and the United States suspended the relaxation of epidemic control, while South Korea bucked the trend and relaxed its entry policy. The global booster vaccination rate was basically the same as last week, recording 120 million doses. The global booster vaccination rate was 18.4%, Pfizer oral drug was approved to be imitated, and Pfizer promoted the booster of the second dose of covid-19 vaccine.
Overseas: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled, and the CPI in the eurozone continued to reach a new high. The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate resolution in March, raising interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The FOMC statement said that it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates and may raise interest rates at the remaining six meetings this year. After the meeting, Waller and Brad both said that the Fed should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points at future meetings. Europe actively responds to the inflationary impact of energy issues. This week, a number of ECB officials expressed concern about the inflation outlook brought by energy prices and were ready to adjust policies to avoid the second round of inflation effect caused by the surge in energy and commodities. The Bank of Japan maintained a strong monetary easing policy. European and American countries have cancelled the “most favored nation treatment” for Russia, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may usher in the dawn. The two sides are expected to reach a peace agreement. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the eurozone rose for nine consecutive months, reaching a record high. The growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed down month on month in February.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose and international oil prices fell. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month, with the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables falling and that of 7 key monitored fruits rising. This week, the average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fell month on month, the average price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal remained stable, and the average price of rebar fell.
Liquidity: the issuing interest rate of certificates of deposit rose and the dollar index fell. The interest rate of short-term funds differentiated this week. The weekly mean value of dr001 decreased by 0.2bp month on month, and the weekly mean value of dr007 increased by 2.4bp month on month; The weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate and 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate rose. The average interest rate of national bills and bank bills has fallen for 1 month, and the annual interest rate has fallen for 6 months. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 140 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 200 billion yuan of MLF and 70 billion yuan of treasury cash deposit in the open market. This week, a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MLF expired in the open market of the central bank; The central bank will have 140 billion yuan of reverse repo maturing in the open market next week. The US dollar index fell this week and the RMB depreciated slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: US stocks rebounded strongly and treasury bond yields fell. US stocks rebounded strongly this week, and the main A-share indexes fell across the board. This week, China’s equity only rose slightly in real estate, non bank finance, medicine, biology and social services, while other industries fell. This week, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 3.2bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds decreased by 4.6bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
