Core view:
1. The two sessions in 2022 set the economic growth target of 5.5%. Under this growth requirement, assuming that the annual export growth rate is the same as that in 2021, if you want to achieve the annual growth rate of 5.5%, there are corresponding growth requirements for annual consumption and investment. According to the calculation of relevant institutions, the economic growth rate of 5.5% requires the consumption growth rate to be at least 6.5% in 2022. However, at present, China is facing the impact of the epidemic since the three-year anti epidemic campaign, which is second only to the beginning of 2020. When the epidemic strikes, consumption is the first to be affected. How much impact does this epidemic have on consumption? How to evaluate? How about the performance of consumption in 2022? Whether the epidemic control is expected to be liberalized and how will it affect consumption? How will Chinese consumption be interpreted and where will it go in the future? We will discuss these issues this week.
2. We evaluate it from two perspectives: the proportion of social zero and the degree of strict control. Generally speaking, the higher the proportion of social zero and the degree of strict control, the greater the impact on social zero. Overall, the impact of the epidemic on consumption in Shenzhen and Shanghai is more obvious.
3. Adhere to dynamic clearing. With the reduction of the benefits brought by the "dynamic zero" strategy, the resulting economic costs may rise sharply, or China will face greater challenges to achieve the GDP growth target of "about 5.5% this year. The repeated epidemic in China will put repeated pressure on consumption, and then the annual consumption growth rate wants to rise to 6.5% to support the realization of steady growth, which requires further efforts of policies in relevant fields. Specific measures include going to the countryside with green household appliances Improve the secondary income distribution and further relax the marginal policies including the real estate side to drive the relevant consumption in the post cycle field of real estate.
Risk warning: uncertainty of epidemic situation
