The tightening of global monetary policy accelerated. Last week, the Fed’s interest rate hike boots finally landed, and hinted that the next meeting would continue to raise interest rates, and may even start to shrink the table; However, from the perspective of asset prices, European stocks and the United States both stabilized and rebounded, precious metals turned from decline to rise, and US bond yields first rose and then fell, which is consistent with our analysis of the rebound of risk assets after the implementation of interest rate increase. For asset allocation, after the interest rate hike is implemented and before the interest rate meeting in May, it is expected to usher in a rebound window period of risky assets, during which it is necessary to continue to track the changes of inflation expectations.
National leaders should make a video call with US President Joe Biden on the evening of the 18th. The two heads of state had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on China US relations, the situation in Ukraine and other issues of common concern. The two heads of state believed that the call was constructive and instructed the working teams of the two countries to follow up in time, take practical actions, strive for the return of China US relations to the track of stable development, and make their own efforts to properly solve the Ukrainian crisis. The marginal stabilization of China US relations is also relatively beneficial to risky assets, such as a shares. At present, the main impact of the situation in Ukraine and Russia on commodities is still obvious. On the one hand, the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still repeated, the fourth round of negotiations between the two sides has not made significant progress, the Russian military action has not stopped, NATO countries have also continuously increased their arms assistance to Ukraine and continuously increased sanctions against Russia; On the other hand, the shortage of crude oil supply under the Ukrainian Russian conflict has not been made up for, the progress of Iran’s nuclear negotiations is slow, and OPEC countries are not willing to accelerate the production increase plan. Follow up needs to continue to track the progress of the event.
China’s multiple signals are released to reverse market pessimism. Last week, the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council responded to the hot and key issues concerned by the market, such as monetary policy, real estate, zhonggai shares, platform economy, etc. After the special meeting of the finance committee, a number of national departments made statements one after another, strengthened the expectation of stabilizing finance and steady growth, and effectively reversed the market pessimism. In addition, the meeting pointed out that we should earnestly revitalize the economy in the first quarter, take the initiative to respond to monetary policy, and maintain a moderate growth in new loans. The positive introduction of market-friendly policies and prudent introduction of contractionary policies show that the follow-up monetary easing policy is still worth looking forward to.
