The global epidemic has an obvious upward trend, and China’s dynamic clearing policy will not change in the short term. Since March 2022, the growth rate of the number of confirmed cases in the world has increased significantly, and Omicron is still the main epidemic strain. Sporadic outbreaks also occurred in various parts of China. As of March 15, 1860 new cases had been confirmed in a single day in China, which was the most severe epidemic situation in China since the Wuhan epidemic. In terms of policy, the general tone of China’s epidemic prevention policy remains unchanged, adhering to the general strategy of “external defense input and internal defense rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”. The monitoring mode is to promote “antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis”, and add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection.
The key to opening up the country: build a “prevention, detection and treatment” – three in one system, and pay attention to the theme investment of covid-19 vaccine, covid-19 nucleic acid / antigen detection, covid-19 drugs and other industrial chains. Independent control of the prevention and treatment system from prevention to treatment is the basic condition for China to open the door, restore the economy and accelerate social development. In terms of prevention, the multi technology route covid-19 vaccine booster sequential program was announced, and the recombinant protein and adenovirus route vaccines with higher protection rate are expected to continue in large quantities and contribute to performance flexibility. In terms of detection, covid-19 antigen home self-test is expected to become an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection. The space elasticity of China’s market is large. So far, China has approved antigen detection products from 12 enterprises. In terms of treatment, neutralizing antibodies and oral small molecule drugs complement each other. Neutralizing antibodies: of which Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) of the etecivir monoclonal antibody lisenceout has contributed revenue to Lilly in 2020. The neutralizing antibody cocktail therapy of tengshengbo medicine was approved for listing in China on December 8, 2021. Small molecule oral drugs: Pfizer’s paxlovid phase III interim data show that it has outstanding curative effect and has been approved to be listed in the United States, EUA and China Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) of vv116 is currently undergoing phase II / III clinical research outside China. It is the fastest growing domestic covid-19 small molecule drug. Pfizer and MSD have authorized their small molecule drug patents to MPP, and the relevant authorized generic pharmaceutical enterprises in China are expected to increase their volume. At the same time, they pay attention to the theme investment opportunities of covid-19 small molecule oral drug industry chain, such as some upstream intermediates and API CMO / cdmo enterprises. Traditional Chinese medicine: it is suggested to pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine targets recommended for traditional Chinese medicine treatment in the new diagnosis and treatment guidelines.
Investment advice
Covid-19 vaccine related targets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc.
Related targets of nucleic acid / antigen detection: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , etc.
Covid-19 neutralizing antibody related targets: tengshengbo medicine, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Baiji Shenzhou, Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) , Fuhong Hanlin, etc.
Covid-19 small molecule oral drug related targets: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Geli pharmaceutical, development of pharmaceutical industry, etc; Other covid-19 drug related targets: Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) etc.
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Subject matter of traditional Chinese medicine: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk tip: the R & D progress is less than expected, the clinical results fail, and the market competition intensifies.
