The price of MCU channel rebounded strongly, and the industry’s high outlook is still in progress: in the first half of 2021, affected by the lack of core in the industry, the prosperity of MCU industry continued to rise, and the price of MCU channel once increased several times. Since Q3 in 2021, the price of chips has dropped due to the obstruction of shipping and the seizure of cross-border e-commerce by Amazon. However, according to our monthly price tracking data, MCU channel prices have stabilized after the Spring Festival, and the prices of some mainstream medium and high-end models have begun to rebound: the prices of Zhaoyi m3 series gd32f103c8t6, M4 series gd32f405rgt6 and other products increased month on month in March compared with February, while overseas Italian and French stm32f103c8t6, STM32F103VCT6 and other models have rebounded more strongly, even reaching a record high.
Review history and analyze the reasons for the price fluctuation of MCU in each stage: (1) the first half of 2021 (MCU price rose sharply): since the second half of 2020, the controlled epidemic has driven the outbreak of downstream demand, and the shutdown of wafer factories has led to the compression of production capacity, resulting in a global wave of core shortage and price rise, and the whole MCU line has been tense. Among them, the supply of vehicle gauge MCU is in short supply, which is the main driver of the cliff type lack of core in the automotive industry and the shortage of global 12 inch mature process capacity. (2) After Q3 in 2021 (MCU channel price drops): the consumer market is still the largest MCU application market in China, and the downstream demand of terminal white brand customers corresponding to many Chinese channel providers is mainly overseas. In the second half of 2021, shipping was blocked, Amazon seized cross-border e-commerce, overseas demand of Chinese channel manufacturers was damaged, and MCU channel prices began to fall sharply. (3) Q1 in 2022 (MCU price stabilizes and rebounds): MCU price stabilizes at the end of December. And it rose again after the Spring Festival. In our annual strategy report, we have predicted that the shipping will pick up around Christmas in 2021, many white label manufacturers and cross-border e-commerce begin to prepare for the Christmas season, and the channels will be opened again after the Spring Festival, which is the core reason for the recent price rise of MCU. In addition, on March 17, Renesas announced that its three factories were temporarily shut down due to the earthquake. We believe that the Japanese earthquake will affect the production of Renesas to a certain extent, or aggravate the shortage of MCU supply.
Grasp the opportunity and long-term impact of MCU price rebound. Putting aside short-term factors, we need to pay more attention to the long-term growth logic of MCU industry: the demand of automotive, industrial and other market segments is continuously improving; Under the tide of shortage, international IDM manufacturers choose to give priority to ensuring the needs of overseas customers, and their ability to control the channels in the Chinese market is poor, and the prices of distributors fluctuate sharply all year round. Under this trend, a number of excellent domestic MCU companies have shown a strong breaking trend. M3, M4, risc-v and other products facing the medium and high-end market have been launched continuously, forming a perfect product matrix, and gradually cutting into high-end fields such as automobile and industrial control.
Investment suggestion: MCU channel price has rebounded strongly recently, and the original factory price is still strong. We are optimistic about the long-term growth logic of MCU industry driven by the demand of automobile, industrial control, aiot and other industries for a long time, and about the domestic substitution opportunities of Chinese MCU manufacturers. It is suggested to focus on: MCU leader with leading technology and perfect product matrix Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) ; MCU leader Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , WiFi MCU leader Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688018) , which spans the markets of home appliances, lithium battery management and motor control; Jiefa technology, the pioneer of automobile MCU ( Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) subsidiary); And Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(688385) , etc. of cross-border vehicle MCU.
Risk warning: the risk of downstream demand fluctuation; The risk of fluctuations in the rhythm of capacity release of wafer factories; The risk of intensified market competition; Macroeconomic and policy risks.
