Geographical conflicts affect the prices of natural gas, and the cost side pushes up the prices of vitamins and amino acids. Recently, affected by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of natural gas, crude oil and other energy fluctuated sharply. According to wind data, since February 24, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures has increased by 11.45%, with the largest increase of 32.16% during the period; IPE UK natural gas settlement price rose by 15.31%, with the largest increase of 152.91% during the period. According to the data of the European chemical Council, natural gas is the main energy supply mode for industrial production in the EU. In terms of energy consumption for chemical production in the EU 27 countries, the consumption of natural gas accounts for the largest, up to 35.6%. If indirect use mode is further considered, it is estimated that the consumption of natural gas will exceed 50%. Affected by this, as an important production base of global vitamins, amino acids and other nutrients, European chemical giants may raise the price of relevant products or reduce the supply. According to feedtrade information, methionine, on March 2 Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) plans to overhaul for 45 days, and Evonik has a maintenance plan; Vitamin E, BASF raised the product price by 20% on March 10.
The bottom of demand is expected to pick up and is optimistic about the prosperity of vitamins, amino acids and other products. Vitamins, amino acids and other products are important fine chemical products. Their downstream products are widely used in feed, medicine, cosmetics and other fields, and have certain rigid demand properties. Affected by the epidemic, industries such as vitamins and amino acids are at the bottom of demand. But looking forward to the future, we are optimistic about the prosperity of vitamins, amino acids and other products. From the perspective of traditional demand, according to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the month on month decline in the number of fertile sows in China has narrowed significantly to – 0.9% in January 2022, and is expected to return to normal in the later stage; In December 2021, the month on month change rate of pig stock increased significantly, reaching 2.6%. Considering the relaxation of overseas epidemic control, the demand for proteins such as chicken and fish is expected to fully benefit. From the perspective of alternative demand, due to the high prices of upstream soybean meal and corn, vitamins, amino acids and other products are expected to increase their proportion in feed formula, so as to stabilize the breeding cost. At present, the price of soybean meal, the main source of protein in feed, has climbed to an all-time high of 4269 yuan / ton, while the average price in 2019 is only 2758 yuan / ton. As a major importer of soybeans, the price of upstream raw materials has caused great cost pressure on the downstream enterprises of China’s aquaculture industry. By increasing the proportion of vitamins, methionine and other products in feed, it can effectively ensure the meat production rate of pigs and alleviate the pressure brought by the price of raw materials such as soybean meal. Therefore, the alternative demand for vitamins, amino acids and other products is expected to fully benefit.
Vitamin E: vitamin E is an important active substance of organisms. It is widely used in feed additives, washing products and medical cosmetics. 67% of vitamin E is used in the field of feed additives. The production process of vitamin E is complex, and the main production enterprises include DSM, Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , BASF and other enterprises. Since DSM acquired and integrated nengte technology in 2019, the concentration of vitamin E industry has increased and the product price is in the rising channel. Recently, with the price adjustment of overseas suppliers, the quotation of vitamin E (50%) products has reached 90 yuan / kg, which is expected to be further improved in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders: Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) .
Vitamin K3: Vitamin K3 is mainly used as feed additive, and other high-end vitamin derivatives are more used as food additives and drugs The main manufacturers of vitamin K3 include Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603067) , etc. Driven by raw materials such as sodium vanadium and methylnaphthalene, the price of vitamin K3 climbed to 187 yuan / kg, up 108.4% from the average price of 89.74 yuan / kg in 2021. The Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603067) integration of Chongqing Minfeng further improves the industry concentration and is beneficial to the future development of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders: Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603067) .
Methionine: methionine is an essential amino acid for animals, but it cannot be synthesized in animals and needs to be ingested from food. It is the first limiting amino acid for poultry, medium and high-yield dairy cows and fish, and the second limiting amino acid for pigs. Therefore, methionine is an essential component in feed additives. The main methionine production enterprises include Evonik, Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) , Novartis, Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , etc. Affected by the tight overseas supply and other factors, the price of methionine began to rise after the Spring Festival, reaching 23250 yuan / ton, up 18.6% from before the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders: Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) .
Investment suggestion: affected by geopolitics and other factors, the cost of overseas vitamins, amino acids and other products has increased significantly, and the supply is limited. However, the industry demand is expected to go out of the bottom, and benefit from the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybeans, corn and other products, driving the demand for substitutes. The prices of vitamin E, vitamin K3, methionine and other products have increased significantly. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant companies: Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) , Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) , Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603067) .
Risk warning event: the global economy is not as expected, the epidemic has repeatedly dragged down demand, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
