The manufacturing industry stabilized and rebounded, and the high-tech manufacturing industry performed well
In February, the PMI index closed at 50.2%, up 0.1pct from the previous month, maintaining the boom range for four consecutive months. Among them, the production index was 50.4%, down 0.5pct from the previous month, and the new order index was 50.7%, up 1.4pct from the previous month. The production index continued to decline due to the suspension of work during the Spring Festival and the rise in the price of raw materials; The new order index was better than market expectations due to the impact of steady growth policy.
From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by + 7.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the average growth rate in the two years of 2021. The added value of manufacturing industry was + 7.3% year-on-year, of which the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, 6.9 and 2.1 percentage points faster than that of industries above Designated Size respectively.
From January to February, the fixed asset investment of manufacturing industry was + 20.9% year-on-year (7.4pct faster than that of 2021). The growth rate of investment in high-tech manufacturing industry still led, with a year-on-year increase of + 42.7%. From January to February, the fixed asset investment of automobile and 3C industries was + 11.3% and + 35.1% year-on-year, 15 PCT and 12.8 PCT higher than that in 2021 respectively.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : the localization rate continues to increase, and there is strong demand for advanced downstream products such as lithium batteries
The industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry will achieve rapid growth in 2021. Supply side: Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output 366000 sets, year-on-year + 44.9%; Demand side: according to mirdata statistics, the scale of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market reached 256000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.5%. Since 2022, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry has continued to maintain a rapid growth rate. From January to February, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 76000 sets, a year-on-year increase of + 29.6%.
From the perspective of competition pattern, the epidemic situation has significantly accelerated domestic substitution. In 2021, domestic industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) brands accounted for 32.8% of China’s shipments, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2pct. We judge that the main reasons are: 1) the comprehensive competitiveness of foreign-funded enterprises is reduced due to the impact of the epidemic, and domestic Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) manufacturers quickly seize the original market of foreign capital; 3) Domestic leading manufacturers play a leading role. In the ranking of shipments of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) manufacturers in China, Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) and Shanghai Step Electric Corporation(002527) are among the top 10, ranking seventh, eighth and tenth respectively.
In terms of downstream areas, advanced manufacturing downstream areas such as lithium battery, storage, medical treatment and semiconductor have become a new fertile land for Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, and the growth rate of shipment in 2021 exceeded 70%. In the medium and long term, the epidemic will accelerate the “machine replacement”, and the diversified demand will promote the rapid growth of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry.
Machine tools: driven by the ten-year renewal cycle, the sales volume of machine tools remains high
After the ten-year renewal cycle background superimposed with the epidemic, the manufacturing industry recovered rapidly, and the machine tool industry showed a high-speed development trend in 2021. From the output data, the output of metal cutting machine tools in 2021 was 602000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.1%; The output of metal forming machine tools was 210000, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%.
Competition pattern: the stronger the stronger & the higher the localization rate. 1) The market concentration has been continuously improved, and the proportion of sales of China’s top 10 manufacturers in the overall market sales has increased from 28% in 2019 to 39% in 2021; 2) The localization rate continues to increase. Driven by domestic leading enterprises, the localization rate of machine tools reached 67% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 2pct. Among them, Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Beijing Jingdiao have ranked the top 3 in market sales, and the sales and market share of Neway Cnc Equipment (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(688697) and Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) are also increasing.
Since 2022, the manufacturing industry has stabilized and rebounded, and the output of machine tools has remained high. From January to February 2022, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 89000, a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%; The output of metal forming machine tools was 30000, unchanged from last year. In the long run, we believe that the machine tool industry will usher in a ten-year upward boom cycle. At present, domestic leading enterprises have ranked among the forefront of the market and are expected to stand out in this cycle and accelerate import substitution. At the same time, with the improvement of capacity utilization, the elasticity of leading performance under the scale effect can be expected.
Investment suggestion: we suggest to pay attention to three main lines: 1) the import substitution target of core parts, recommend [ Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ] [ Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ] [ Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ] [ Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ]; 2) [ Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ] is recommended for the business layout facing the downstream with high prosperity and expected to smooth the cyclical fluctuation of the industry; 3) The inflection point of the renewal cycle is upward, and the import substitution can be expected under the scale expansion. It is recommended that machine tool enterprises [ Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) ] [ Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) ] [ Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) ] [ Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) ].
Risk warning: downstream fixed asset investment is less than expected; Industry cycle fluctuation; The impact of the epidemic continues.
