Intelligent driving is surging, and lidar has great flexibility. At present, the algorithm can not completely make up for the defect of hardware perception. Lidar is indispensable in high-level automatic driving. L3 / L4 / L5 intelligent vehicles need to be equipped with 1 / 2 / 4 lidars respectively. In 2022, a number of high-level intelligent vehicles equipped with lidar, including Mercedes Benz S, BMW IX, Weilai et7, Xiaopeng G9 and ideal L9, were launched and delivered. The average carrying capacity of lidar was about 2, accelerating the mass production of lidar. At present, the single cost of lidar is about US $1000, which is expected to drop to less than US $500 in 2025. At that time, the market scale of lidar will exceed 25 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 202125 will be as high as 162%, which is the track with the greatest elasticity under the wave of automobile intelligence.
Multiple technology routes bloom, and vehicle enterprises invest in complete machine factories to weaken the uncertainty of the route. At present, the lidar industry chain is still immature, a variety of technical routes bloom, and the scanning scheme of semi-solid state (905nm + rotating mirror / MEMS + TOF) is relatively mature. It is the easiest to pass the vehicle regulation certification and has become the mainstream choice for vehicle enterprises to accelerate the boarding in the short term. Valeo Scala rotating mirror lidar is the world’s first lidar that has passed vehicle regulations. It was carried in Audi a8202 in 2018, and the models that were delivered in 2002 are basically rotating mirror / MEMS solutions. The solid-state scheme (1550nm + OPA + FMCW) has the least mechanical components, stable performance and high reliability. It is the future development direction of lidar towards miniaturization, high performance and low cost. The market is generally worried about the necessity of carrying lidar and the uncertainty caused by the change of technical route. We see that: on the one hand, the pure visual route with high computing power requirements is difficult to make an effective breakthrough in the short term. Under the trend of hardware embedding, lidar has become the mainstream choice of vehicle enterprises, and the short-term high growth of lidar is not in danger; On the other hand, car companies and Tier1 have invested in the whole lidar plant. Industrial alliance can not only accelerate the R & D breakthrough of advanced LiDAR technology and weaken the passivity of car companies in the face of uncertainty of technical route, but also help the industrial chain quickly reduce manufacturing costs and improve the cost performance of lidar in the future.
In the early stage of the outbreak of the industry, the upstream uncertainty is high, and optical component manufacturers ushered in a sweet period of high performance growth. The use of lidar components under different technical routes has commonalities, so China’s upstream component manufacturers with significant advantages or scarcity usher in high growth certainty. 1) The cost of transceiver module accounts for 50-60%. At present, it is mainly dominated by overseas manufacturers. Due to its early layout, leading technology and high product maturity, Chinese manufacturers also show an accelerated catch-up trend under the trend of domestic substitution. For example, changguanghuaxin gradually realizes the localization of high-power semiconductor light-emitting chips. 2) Optical elements are distributed in transceiver modules and scanning modules, and the cost proportion (10-15%) is second only to transceiver modules. Chinese manufacturers have global leading advantages and prominent cost advantages. Manufacturers who cooperate with mainstream complete machine manufacturers and harvest fixed points will significantly benefit from the high elasticity of the lidar industry. Torch technology expects the lidar revenue in 23 years to be about 19 times that in 20 years. In the long run, under the trend of lightweight, the scanning mode is gradually changing from semi-solid to solid-state scheme. The optical element factory with multi-component supply capacity and the ability to vertically extend the assembly link of the whole downstream machine will have the momentum of sustainable growth Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) has the supply capacity of many kinds of core optical components, and has entered the OEM link of non vehicle gauge lidar, so it has strong competitive strength.
Investment suggestion: lidar is the track with the greatest flexibility in automobile intellectualization, with high upstream certainty in the early stage of the industry outbreak. It is suggested to pay attention to the subject matter that China has technology and cost advantages and has won fixed-point orders from mainstream complete machine manufacturers, such as Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) (cooperation with innoviz and Hesai), torch technology (cooperation with velodyne, luminar and Mainland China), Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) (cooperation with Suteng juchuang) Changguang Huaxin (to be listed and cooperate with Huawei), Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) (cooperate with Hesai and Radisson Intelligence).
Risk tip: the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is lower than expected; Under the change of technology route, relevant companies cannot maintain competitive advantage; The information used in the research report is not timely; The demand / scale calculation is lower than expected.
