Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4950 yuan / ton, up – 0.2% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5110 yuan / ton, up – 0.8% from last week. The price of raw materials was divided this week, and the price of port iron ore this week increased compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices fell compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 153 yuan / ton, – 233 yuan / ton and – 180 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five steel plants increased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses decreased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.55 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 194000 tons, of which the output of construction steel increased by 72200 tons, the output of sector increased by 121800 tons, and the output of deformed steel increased by 43100 tons to 3.01 million tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.6511 million tons and 358900 tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was + 47800 tons and – 4700 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 359200 tons to 172169 million tons on a week-on-week basis, and the total inventory of steel mills increased by 286900 tons on a week-on-week basis, including 228500 tons of rebar social warehouse and 154700 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3083800 tons, with a decrease of 248600 tons on a week-on-week basis. The daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 164100 tons, with a decrease of 8% on a week-on-week basis.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic will disturb the downstream steel consumption in the short term, but with the gradual promotion of the steady growth policy, the steel demand intensity is expected to gradually rise. This week, the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has worsened, affecting steel consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3083800 tons, with a decrease of 248600 tons on a week-on-week basis. On the supply side, with the end of production restriction in the northern heating season, the blast furnace operating rate increased this week, but under the background of “double carbon”, the space for steel output growth is limited. In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline, and the factory and warehouse picked up due to the impact of the epidemic. On the whole, although the short-term epidemic has disturbed the steel consumption, the steel fundamentals are expected to improve gradually with the gradual force of the steady growth policy and the superposition of the peak consumption season. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Pipe object: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
