Event: in February, the total transportation turnover of the whole industry was 6.17 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year, returning to 63.9% in the same period in 2019; The passenger traffic volume reached 31.294 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, returning to 58.1% in the same period in 2019; The completed freight and mail transportation volume was 431000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and an increase of 14.5% over the same period in 2019.
The aviation industry as a whole showed a trend of high opening and low going in February. Although in absolute terms, February still showed a certain growth year-on-year, considering the relatively strict local new year policy adopted in the same period last year, resulting in a very low base, the growth rate in February this year is still slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic.
The supply of the three major shipping forces is basically the same, and the passenger seat rate has increased significantly: the supply of industrial transport capacity in February showed a year-on-year growth trend, mainly due to the lack of strict local new year policy this year and the relatively free movement of personnel during the Spring Festival. The passenger seat rate of the three major airlines increased significantly month on month in February, mainly due to the strong demand during the Spring Festival transportation. However, there is still a gap of about 18% in the passenger seat rate compared with the same period in 19 years, so it is still significantly lower than the normal level.
The industry faced severe challenges in March and April: the performance of the aviation industry during the Spring Festival was indeed significantly better than that in the same period last year, but the impact of the epidemic began to expand in late February, affecting the performance in the second half of February. The data for March is also not optimistic. The severity of the epidemic in China has exceeded previous expectations. The two hubs in Shenzhen and Shanghai have been greatly hit by the epidemic, and various indicators are expected to be significantly lower than that in the same period last year. High oil prices also put great pressure on the operation of the industry. At present, Brent oil price is maintained at more than US $100 / barrel, and the cost increase brought by oil price is difficult to be transferred due to the damage of industry demand. Therefore, the industry is actually facing the double squeeze of demand side and cost side at the same time.
From March to may last year, China was basically not affected by the epidemic, and the passenger occupancy rate continued to rise, and it was even close to the normal level in May. In contrast, this situation can not be expected in the first half of this year. At least in the next 1-2 months, the seating rate will hover at a low position for some time.
The major accident on March 21 will also significantly affect the aviation demand in the next 2-3 months. According to past experience, the demand damage is most obvious in the month after the air crash, and it will take 2-3 months to recover gradually. Therefore, it is expected that the supply and demand of the aviation industry will be further suppressed in March and April. In conclusion, at least in the first half of this year, China’s aviation industry will still face severe challenges.
The coexistence strategy is not suitable for China for the time being. International freight cooling: the epidemic spread in Shanghai and Shenzhen shows that China’s immune barrier has not been built yet. At present, before the high-risk groups (the elderly and young children) complete the third vaccination, the coexistence strategy is still not established, and international passenger transport cannot be liberalized in the short term. In terms of international air cargo, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) February 787 cargo charter flights decreased significantly, marking a clear decline in international freight rates in February.
Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn; Changes in civil aviation policies; Safety accidents; Large fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates; Abnormal weather factors, etc.
