\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 2 Shenzhen Centralcon Investment Holding Co.Ltd(000042) 0)
Event 1: on the evening of March 20, the company issued the 2021 non-public offering stock plan (Revised Version). The number of shares in this non-public offering does not exceed 300 million (including this number). The company plans to raise no more than 1.2 billion yuan through non-public offering, of which 900 million yuan will be used for the “12000 ton carbon fiber composite project” (the total investment of the project is 1.459 billion yuan), and the remaining 300 million yuan will be used to repay bank loans.
Event 2: on March 18, the controlling shareholder of the company chemical fiber group issued a commitment: within three years from the date of this commitment, chemical fiber group will take relevant measures in line with state-owned assets supervision and securities supervision, including injecting the controlling stake of Guoxing carbon fiber into the listed company, so as to further protect the interests of listed companies and minority shareholders. At the same time, before the implementation of the above relevant measures, Guoxing carbon fiber will not invest in the field of carbon fiber composites and small tow carbon fiber.
Comments:
The project of non-public offering of shares was smoothly promoted, and the economic benefits were obvious. The fixed increase project company has disclosed the relevant plans in November 2021. At the same time, it has also passed the first round of project review by the CSRC. It also needs to be approved by the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of Jilin Province, the general meeting of shareholders of the company and the CSRC. At present, the “12000 ton carbon fiber composite material project” proposed by the company has obtained the approval of project initiation and environmental assessment, and the energy assessment report has been submitted to Jilin Provincial Development and Reform Commission for approval. The main product of “12000 tons of carbon fiber composite material project” is 12000 tons of pultruded sectors. According to the company’s estimation, the product sales unit price is about 128000 yuan / ton (excluding tax). The project is expected to start trial production in May 2023 and reach production acceptance in August 2023. After the completion of the project, it is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 1.54 billion yuan and an average annual total profit of 142 million yuan.
Domestic substitution of carbon fiber composites has driven into the fast lane, and the downstream demand is good. Carbon fiber composite material has excellent performance and wide downstream application fields. The carbon fiber composite material project invested in this raising is mainly used for the main structure of large equipment (such as wind power equipment, rail transit, automobile) or building reinforcement. At present, China’s external dependence on carbon fiber is still high, and there is still a large space for domestic substitution. In recent years, China has mainly adopted the pultrusion beam technology of large fiber bundle carbon fiber to reduce costs. The price of large fiber bundle carbon fiber and its composites has decreased, and the consumption of carbon fiber in areas such as superimposed wind turbine blades has increased sharply. The “14th five year plan” period will be a period of rapid development of downstream carbon fiber composites. The company fully grasps the development process of carbon fiber and continuously improves the competitiveness of the industry.
In terms of small tow, the 600 ton 1K and 3K small tow carbon fiber production line under construction by Jilin kaimeike Chemical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has provided experience for the company to enter the downstream field of carbon fiber industrial chain. In terms of large tow, the company has held 49% equity of Jilin Baojing carbon materials Co., Ltd. Jilin Baojing is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of 25-50k large tow and low-cost carbon fiber. At present, it has the annual capacity of 8000 tons of carbon fiber, and plans to form an annual capacity of 12000 tons of carbon fiber by the end of 2025. The carbon fiber composite project with fixed increase layout can broaden the business scope of the company and extend the industrial chain layout of the company’s carbon fiber.
High quality assets are expected to be injected to expand the company’s large tow carbon fiber production capacity. Guoxing carbon fiber is an asset acquired and cultivated by the chemical fiber group first by the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of Jilin city according to the carbon fiber industry planning of Jilin Province. It is a subsidiary of the chemical fiber group with 100% shareholding. Guoxing carbon fiber is mainly engaged in the production and sales of large tow carbon fiber. At present, 15000 tons of carbon fiber project is under construction. The production capacity will be gradually released in August 2021. The main customers are civil carbon fiber products and composite materials enterprises. Historically, Guoxing carbon fiber suffered long-term losses and was insolvent. Its revenue in 2019 / 2020 was 41 / 66 million yuan respectively, and its net profit was – 44 / 49 million yuan respectively (it still suffered losses after deducting the income from asset disposal). Since the holding of chemical fiber group, the management and production of Guoxing carbon fiber have improved, and the production and operation have improved slightly. From January to September 2021, Guoxing carbon fiber achieved operating profit for the first time, with a revenue of 182 million yuan and a net profit of 36 million yuan. At that time, Guoxing chemical fiber group has made a public commitment to increase the capacity of high-quality carbon fiber bundle in the future, and has made a clear commitment on the time of carbon fiber bundle assets in the future. Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s fixed growth projects are progressing smoothly, and we still maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be -110/0.49/187 million yuan respectively, and the converted EPS will be -0.05/0.02/0.09 yuan / share respectively, still maintaining the “overweight” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the release of production capacity is less than expected, the landing risk of fixed increase projects, the risk of product price fluctuation, the risk of product verification, and the asset injection is less than expected.
