\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 865 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved a revenue of 8.713 billion yuan in the whole year of 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 39.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.120 billion yuan, an increase of 30.15% year-on-year. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 2.376 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 2.89% and a year-on-year increase of + 5.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 403 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 11.57% and a year-on-year ratio of – 50.67%. The performance was in line with expectations.
The profitability of photovoltaic glass is excellent, and the proportion of thin glass increases quarter by quarter. In the whole year of 21, the company shipped 265 million square meters of photovoltaic glass, with a year-on-year increase of 43.17%, of which the proportion of thin glass reached about 50% in the fourth quarter, and the proportion increased quarter by quarter. Although the price of upstream soda ash fell in the fourth quarter, due to the rise of fuel price, the company’s cost remained at a high level and its profit was under pressure. However, the company has excellent cost control ability, product structure upgrading and continuous production of large kiln capacity, and its profitability remains at a high level.
The downstream demand was strong in 22 years, and the company’s shipment is expected to increase significantly. It is estimated that the global installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach 220gw in 22 years. Assuming that thin glass accounts for 50%, the corresponding demand for photovoltaic glass is about 45300 tons / day, an increase of nearly 40% compared with 21 years. As a leading enterprise of photovoltaic glass, the company is expected to fully benefit from the improvement of downstream demand. We expect that the shipment of photovoltaic glass will increase significantly in 22 years.
The company’s capacity continues to expand, and the signing of long orders ensures the company’s future performance growth. By the end of the year 21, the company’s total photovoltaic glass production capacity was 12200 tons / day. It is expected that seven photovoltaic glass production capacity of 1200 tons / day will be released in the year 22. By the end of the year 22, the production capacity is expected to be significantly increased to 20600 tons / day. At present, the third and fourth phase projects of Anhui production base are under construction. In addition, four photovoltaic glass kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons in Nantong, Jiangsu are still under approval. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, it will further consolidate its leading position.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 2.910/39.86/5.218 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.3% / 37.0% / 30.9%, and EPS of RMB 1.36/1.86/2.43, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is lower than expected, and the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected
