\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 064 Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) )
The event company released the 2021 annual performance express, and the company achieved a total operating revenue of 28.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 249.46%; The basic earnings per share is 1.72 yuan.
The simultaneous rise in the volume and price of main products led to a significant increase in performance. Affected by factors such as the boost of downstream market demand, the volume and price of the company's main products rose together in 2021, resulting in a significant increase in operating revenue and net profit. In particular, the spandex industry is driven by the demand boom, the product price / price difference has repeatedly hit a record high, and the profitability has increased significantly year-on-year; The price and sales volume of adipic acid, polyurethane stock solution and other products increased significantly year-on-year, and the profit level also increased year-on-year. In terms of price difference, the price difference (market price, tax included) of spandex and adipic acid in 2021 were 30841 and 3345 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 128.2% and 31.5%.
The boom of spandex is expected to continue to decline with little room. Adipic acid maintains a high boom. Affected by the release of new production capacity, weak downstream demand and other factors, the boom of spandex has decreased significantly, and the price difference is close to the bottom of history. Adipic acid continued to rise compared with 2021, and the price difference further expanded, mainly driven by downstream demand. Considering the continuous recovery of textile demand at home and abroad and the significant improvement of China's textile exports, China's chemical fiber industry chain will fully benefit. In 2021, the sales volume of clothing and clothing accessories stores in the United States was $302.8 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.3% and 12.7% over 2019; China's retail sales of clothing and social consumer goods increased by 12.7% year-on-year, an increase of 5.3% over 2019. Over the same period, China's exports of textile yarn, fabrics and products, clothing and clothing accessories reached 315.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% and 16.2% over 2019. From January to February, China's exports of textile yarn, fabrics and products, clothing and clothing accessories reached US $50.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and continued to maintain a high export growth rate. We believe that the demand for spandex will still maintain a relatively steady growth. At present, the bottom has been basically completed, and there is little room for the boom to continue to decline; Adipic acid is expected to maintain a high outlook under the background of continuous positive downstream demand.
Continue to expand the production capacity of spandex and adipic acid, giving the company high growth attributes. At present, the company has a production capacity of 175000 tons / year of spandex, 420000 tons / year of polyurethane stock solution and 735000 tons / year of adipic acid. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2025, the production of spandex and adipic acid of the company will still increase by 350000 T / A and 510000 T / a (Phase V + phase VI). In particular, adipic acid is expected to usher in new growth space driven by the demand of downstream nylon 66, polyurethane elastomer and biodegradable plastic PBAT, which will significantly thicken the company's performance.
According to the investment proposal, the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 28.5 billion yuan, 29.7 billion yuan and 37.5 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.94 billion yuan, 6.09 billion yuan and 7.41 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 248.5%, - 23.3% and 21.6%; EPS is 1.71, 1.32 and 1.60 yuan respectively (excluding additional issuance), and the corresponding PE is 5.1, 6.6 and 5.5 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
