“Fear when others are greedy, greed when others are afraid”. Buffett’s words are regarded as a standard by many investors, but when the panic is really staged in the market, only a few people can be “greedy”.
Recently, Tencent, Alibaba, meituan and other stocks have gone to extremes, and many investors have chosen to flee.
When the market was in extreme panic, the top investors chose to go against the trend. On March 15, Tencent’s share price fell to about HK $310. Duan Yongping, known as “Chinese Buffett”, said: “tomorrow I’m going to change BRKB (Tencent). I won’t wait.”
Over the past few years, the market has staged many panic moments. From the operation of the top investors, they have finally achieved considerable returns when they attack in the market panic.
investment top flow contrarian layout
Duan Yongping, who holds heavy positions in apple and Maotai, has paid more attention to Tencent in the past six months. Over the past year, Tencent’s share price has “fallen endlessly”, from HK $750 in February last year to less than HK $300 in the near future.
In the view of Duan Yongping, who believes in value, opportunities fall out. The stock price of Tencent fell to about 450 points on August last year, and then fell to about 450 points on August. Since February this year, he has bought Tencent shares twice. When Tencent’s share price fell below HK $400, Duan Yongping said that he would add a position for every 10% drop.
On March 15, when zhonggai shares fell sharply, Tencent’s share price once fell below HK $300. Duan Yongping said that he could not wait for the money to arrive in three days and chose to sell BRKB for Tencent shares.
Like Duan Yongping, those who chose to build positions in Hong Kong stocks against the trend include Xie Zhiyu, an investment tycoon of Xingquan fund, and Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng fund. The two recently publicly bullish on Hong Kong stocks. In the Hong Kong stock market rebounded on March 16, the one-day net value of Xingquan Heyi fund managed by Xie Zhiyu increased by more than 6%, and the one-day net value of Zhonggeng value pilot fund managed by Qiu Dongrong increased by more than 9%. It can be seen from the heavy positions of the funds they manage that they have strengthened the layout of Hong Kong stocks in the sharp decline of China concept stocks since this year.
In fact, several extreme markets in the past few years are good opportunities for top investors to counter the trend. Take Feng Liu, an investor of Gaoyi assets, as an example. After the 2018 National Day holiday, the market suddenly fell sharply. In just eight or nine trading days, the Shanghai stock index fell by more than 370 points, and the lowest point was 2449 points on October 19. Even the “stock king” Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , the limit is also very rare. However, when the market panicked, Feng Liuguo dared to move and transfer the position of Hong Kong stocks to a shares.
It can be seen from the irregular announcement of Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) that Gao yilinshan No. 1 fund managed by Feng Liu increased its position in Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) .
In early 2019, with the improvement of market sentiment, core assets represented by consumption and medicine, as well as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, high-end manufacturing and other sectors began to shine. At the end of 2018, the funds that chose to avoid risks, reduce positions and even clear positions did not enjoy the rising market after that.
grasp the development pulse of the times
In the capital market, bull stocks always dance with the development of the times. For investors, it is very important to attack when the market encounters extreme prices. But everyone has a different understanding of the specific target of the attack. Duan Yongping chose the company he could understand, and Feng Liu chose the company that met his investment framework.
In the trend downward market in 2018, Fei Yi of GF was once in distress. As a fund manager in July 2017, the market adjustment was ushered in a few months later. The pharmaceutical stocks and electronic stocks laid out fell a lot, putting Fei Yi under great pressure.
When studying the history of US stock investment, Fei Yi found that bull stocks always dance with the development of the times. Although China and the United States have different development backgrounds, history always moves forward with similar rhymes. To grasp the pulse of the development of the times, investment must have corresponding pattern thinking and forward-looking thinking to think about the industries that can flourish in the next 10 and 20 years. From this point of view, he selected two main investment lines of medicine and electronics and held them heavily.
“The bull stocks of American stocks are consumer companies and technology companies. I want to choose industries that promote the development of society.” Fei Yi said, “focusing on the industries that provide power for the development of the times and making layout is much higher than the success rate of industry wide allocation.”
From the experience of many blue chip investors, whether Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan or Chen Guangming, they experienced difficult times in the growth concept stock market from 2013 to 2015, but they all insisted on independent judgment, survived and finally reaped the rose of time.
From the perspective of performance attribution, most of the blue chip funds in the past few years have accurately grasped the social development trend. The core asset concept stocks represented by ‘s Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) stockshave performed well. In 2019, Liu Gesong won the annual revenue champion by relying on the heavy warehouse technology and pharmaceutical sector, and in 2020, Zhao Yi won the annual revenue champion by relying on the heavy warehouse new energy sector. In 2021, Qianhai open source fund manager Cui Chenlong won the annual revenue champion by relying on the heavy warehouse new energy, which is the result of grasping the industrial development trend.
Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi assets, once said that the A-share market reflects and records the change history of various industries in China, grasps the development context and industrial development trend of the times, and investors can obtain huge returns.
overcome panic with confidence
For investment top flow, every investment decision is made based on its investment framework. Duan Yongping bought Tencent because Tencent is a good company within his understanding.
As a believer of Buffett, Duan Yongping believes that buying stocks is buying the company, buying the company is buying the discount of its future cash flow, and the future refers to the whole life cycle of the company. “To understand a company is to understand the discount of its future cash flow. To understand investment is to understand how to discount cash flow, such as business model, moat, capacity circle, etc.” Duan Yongping said, “knowing how big your ability circle is is often much more important than how big your ability circle is!”
Anchoring value in his own ability circle is Duan Yongping’s confidence in attacking Tencent and the confidence to overcome panic. A large part of the earnings of blue chip investors who shot in the market panic came from the opportunities brought by emergencies in the capability circle.
Take Xie Zhiyu as an example. At the end of May 2018, affected by the adjustment of photovoltaic policy, the leading photovoltaic stock Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) fell sharply. Xie Zhiyu, who had already taken a heavy position Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) at that time, chose to increase his position against the trend. From the Xingquan Heyi fund under its management, it can be seen that in the first quarter of 2018, the fund held Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 3375 million shares; After the Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) sharp decline in the second quarter, the position was increased to 52.45 million shares, and further increased to 145 million shares in the third quarter. Since then, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has increased several times, contributing huge profits to the fund. The courage to increase positions against the trend is inseparable from Xie Zhiyu’s long-term attention to China’s energy revolution. After years of in-depth tracking of the photovoltaic industry, he dared to increase his position against the trend in the fierce market fluctuations.
On the contrary, some fund managers chose to reduce their positions in extreme markets, and missed the sharp rise since then. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the market was shrouded in a pessimistic atmosphere. In order to avoid risks, some fund managers reduced their positions very low. However, in the soaring market in the first quarter of 2019, they had no time to increase their positions, which seriously affected the long-term earnings. Many fund managers interviewed by the reporter have deeply regretted their position reduction operation at the end of 2018 and March 2020. For example, a fund manager who deeply ploughed in the consumer field dropped the position in March 2020 in the big crash, worried that the net value of the fund was too large, and eventually lost the Baijiu stock market. It made him very regretful.
