A-share huge earthquake, the last two trading days north to the U-turn influx of funds.
Last week (March 14-18), A-share market fluctuated violently, and the trend of foreign investment has always been one of the focuses of the market. Last week, the cumulative net outflow of funds from the North was 16.692 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of more than 54% month on month. However, there has been an obvious inflection point in the single day net inflow data. Some analysts pointed out that the sharp outflow of foreign capital is coming to an end. At present, the cost performance of A-Shares is prominent, and there is a great possibility of foreign capital re inflow.
Last week, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) were the top three stocks with net purchases of 1.82 billion yuan, 1.41 billion yuan and 660 million yuan respectively. In addition, the stock with the largest increase in capital positions in the north is Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , with the shareholding ratio increased by 2.22%.
What surprised the market is that the most popular Baijiu stock in the past has become the target of continuous selling. According to the data, from March 14 to 18, northbound capital sold a net Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 5269 billion yuan, with a net number of 3.646 million shares, a new low in nearly four years.
Another signal is that there seems to be more and more foreign-funded institutions looking at the Chinese market. Some foreign-funded institutions frankly say that the current A-share market has become attractive. Some positive policy signals are observed, and they can be more optimistic in the future.
foreign capital fierce game
Since March, the volatility of A-Shares has increased significantly, and a thrilling scene was staged last week (March 14-18). The Shanghai index fell 7.4% in the first two trading days, once approaching 3000 points, and then the Jedi counteroffensive. The Shanghai index rose more than 6% in the last three trading days, returning above 3200 points, and the gem index soared more than 8%.
Behind the super fluctuating market, it is naturally inseparable from the fierce game of funds, among which the northward funds have attracted the attention of the market.
According to the data of resumption of trading, northbound funds played a selling role in the process of sharp decline of a shares. On March 14 and 15, under the sharp decline of a shares, the net sales of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan, reaching 14.4 billion yuan and 16 billion yuan respectively; Subsequently, the A-share market stabilized and rebounded, and northbound funds began to participate in bottom reading. On the 17th and 18th, northbound funds bought a net of 5.365 billion yuan and 8.457 billion yuan respectively.
According to the weekly latitude statistics, the cumulative net outflow of funds from the North last week was 16.692 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of more than 54% month on month compared with 36.32 billion yuan in the previous week. At the same time, the divergence and game of northbound funds also intensified significantly. Last week, the total amount of northbound funds reached 654.8 billion yuan, a new high in nearly half a year.
If the time period is lengthened, according to the monthly data, since March, the cumulative net sales of northbound funds have reached 50.8 billion yuan, which has ranked the third largest monthly net sales in history. The weekly net sales from March 7 to 11 also reached the third peak in history.
Guohai strategy repeated the previous foreign capital outflows of A-Shares in detail, and concluded that compared with the previous range and duration of foreign capital outflows, the current round of foreign capital outflows is coming to an end. With the sound of the golden stability meeting, the tone of the first video call between China and the US dollar and the gradual clarification of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the cost performance of A-Shares is highlighted, and there is a greater possibility of foreign capital re inflow.
copy the bottom what? What did you sell
As the tide of foreign capital selling is coming to an end, once foreign capital returns to the net inflow trend, which sectors or stocks will regain favor has become a topic worthy of key discussion.
judging from the net inflow trend of northbound funds in a single day, the last three trading days of last week are an important turning point. Therefore, by resuming the list of stocks whose northbound funds were copied last week, we may observe the direction of the layout of northbound funds in the next stage
First of all, from the perspective of the latitude of net buy in amount, first of all, from the perspective of the latitude of net buy in amount, from March 14 to 18, the period of March 14-18, the period of March 14-18, the period of March 14-18, the period of March 14-18, the period of March 14-18, when NorthNorth funds net buy in six stocks with net purchases of more than $500 billion over $500 billion, namely Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 333 Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) \ \580million yuan, 520 million yuan.
Among them, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) was the stock with the largest net purchase amount of northbound funds last week, with an increase of more than 31.88 million shares.
In addition, from the change of shareholding ratio of northbound funds, the largest increase of northbound funds during March 14-18 was Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , which were increased by 2.22% and 1.84% respectively.
It is worth mentioning that, as the leader of hyaluronic acid, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ‘s share price has suffered continuous decline. As of the latest closing, the share price was 112.46 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 64% compared with the highest point. It is worth noting that in the past six trading days, northbound capital has continuously bought Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , with a cumulative net number of 2394500 shares. The proportion of circulating shares held by northbound capital increased from 2.72% at the beginning of the week to 4.94%.
In addition, the individual stocks with a large proportion of increased holdings of northbound funds also include Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) , China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , with an increase ratio of more than 1%.
What surprised the market is that the most popular Baijiu stock in the past has become the target of continuous selling of north capital. According to the data, from March 14 to 18, the net sales of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) reached 5.269 billion yuan, the net number of shares sold was 3.646 million, and the shareholding reached a new low in recent four years. Among them, the net sales on March 15 exceeded 2.7 billion yuan, the highest single day net sales of funds going north. In addition, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) last week was also sold by northbound funds with a net amount of 1.123 billion yuan.
By industry, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry bucked the trend last week and obtained a net purchase of 1.348 billion yuan, the only industry with a net purchase of more than 1 billion yuan; Mechanical equipment, household appliances, mining, building decoration and other six industries also received a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan.
The food and beverage industry was sold by north capital for over 7 billion 800 million yuan, mainly concentrated on Baijiu stock, with a net outflow of over 7 billion 200 million yuan. The pharmaceutical, biological and chemical 2 industries sold more than 2 billion yuan, while the non bank financial, computer and electrical equipment were sold more than 1 billion yuan.
more and more foreign-funded institutions
Another important signal is that more and more foreign-funded institutions are bullish on the Chinese market. Some foreign-funded institutions frankly say that the current A-share market has become attractive. Some positive policy signals are observed, and they can be more optimistic in the future.
The latest report released by Goldman Sachs shows that based on good growth expectations, loose policies, extremely low valuations and low investor positions, it still remains “over matched with the Chinese market”.
Goldman Sachs said that at present, the Chinese market is oversold, and the fair P / E ratio of MSCI China should be 12.5 times, rather than the current 9.9 times, which is the lowest in six years. Goldman Sachs lowered the 12-month forward P / E ratio of MSCI China Index from 14.5 times to 12 times, but in terms of specific points, it still means that there is an upward potential of 27%.
Allianz investment believes that China’s fiscal and monetary policies have now turned to steady growth. Considering that China’s financial environment may become loose and the valuation has declined, China’s stock market will usher in a more favorable environment in 2022.
Morgan Stanley said that the voice of the meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council mentioned the issues of greatest concern to the market, which is a positive sign. At present, it maintains a “standard configuration” for China’s stock market.
Liu Mingdian, chief economist of JPMorgan, said that the main factors for the sustained rebound of China US stock market and the international relations of JPMorgan include whether the Asian stock market and the international relations; The situation of Omicron epidemic in the mainland and the arrangement of taking into account the stable operation of the economy; The trend of macroeconomic growth and performance growth; Trends in industry regulation.
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to deliver important information and boost market sentiment, which led to a major reversal of a shares. In this regard, UBS Securities said that the specific implementation of the above policy signals will dominate the market trend and foreign trading behavior in the short term. Overall, there have been positive policy signals, and the further implementation of supporting policies in the future is expected to attract overseas investors to return to the A-share market.
At the same time, Chinese institutions are also optimistic about the outlook for the future market, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) combed the seven historical bottoms of A-Shares since 2005, and said that referring to historical experience, when the positive turn of excess liquidity is superimposed, the growth rate of new social finance is accelerated and improved, the valuation is reduced to a historical low, the marginal improvement of external liquidity, the transaction downturn, the turnover rate is significantly reduced, and the K-line is a w combination, which is the signal of the bottom of the market.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that at present, A-Shares have gradually seen multiple bottoming signals. If all the signals are met, A-Shares are expected to usher in an upward “perfect storm”. The time window is about from mid April to mid May, and the industry configuration focuses on “steady growth of demand and upstream profit”.
