At present, there are four main lines of the industrial track: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. Among them, various
In the process of investor exchanges, the recognition of post epidemic repair transaction logic is rising, the pessimism of the pharmaceutical sector has significantly improved, and the sentiment for the post cycle chain of real estate has become more positive than before under steady growth.
In our "three rate" investment trading strategy (winning rate, odds and frequency), the allocation strategy we previously proposed: looking for growth in the low position (high odds and low cost) + short duration (high winning rate) + maintaining concentration (low frequency) is still applicable.
1) as for the worry about global inflation, we believe that although it is difficult to end in the short term, it will not change the internal operation logic of a shares. The high volatility of bulk prices and China's policy risk will increase the difficulty of allocation. In China, the high probability of post epidemic repair will be subject to the recent local epidemic in China and the lack of obvious adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, which is in the game stage.
2) in studying and judging the allocation relationship between high prosperity and steady growth, we put forward two sentences: the first sentence is called "stable growth cannot afford, high prosperity is difficult to flourish", and the second sentence is called "steady growth can be realized, and high prosperity will turn for the better". To a certain extent, in December last year and February this year, it reflected a situation of "stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to flourish". Then, with the convening of the two sessions, it will gradually come to a process of steady growth and high prosperity. Signs of steady growth: 1. Policies of the two sessions (policies); 2. Industrial added value (Fundamentals); 3. Real estate stocks and consumer stocks stabilized and rebounded (transaction logic).
[evaluation of industrial track view in the next month] at present, we still focus on the configuration direction of "high prosperity". The priority of attention is: high prosperity steady growth post epidemic repair global inflation. For the original high prosperity ranking of wind power, photovoltaic has the highest consensus, followed by semiconductors and wind power, and finally new energy vehicles and military industry. There is a strong consensus on lithium in new energy vehicles. The market began to look for a new main line when new energy fell in December last year. The main line in 2022 is likely to be a certain direction of the market in the past three months: intelligence. Specific attention segments: smart car / home, photovoltaic module, industrial software, semiconductor (IGBT), covid-19 detection, lithium, agrochemical, data center and computing power construction. Focus on differentiation: cosmetics, optical fiber and cable, green building materials, small household appliances (coffee machine, floor washer), aluminum
[focus on industry dynamics] 1) Digital Economy: the whole industry chain of smart city construction (including bottom 5g application expansion, big data, network security, IOT sensing and security intelligent monitoring and prediction); (2) New energy vehicles: the new breakthrough of "doubles" penetration lies in intelligence, that is, intelligent new energy vehicles; (3) Photovoltaic: the key to the industrial chain lies in cost reduction and efficiency increase. P-type battery is expected to move to n-type. Pay attention to the opportunities related to TOPCON battery industrial chain.
[market interpretation: at present, industries with low cost sensitivity, prominent industrial trend and positive correlation with policies have strong resistance to pressure]
In recent January, the core industry track generally fell, and only the coal chain showed an overall upward trend, with an increase of 1.37% since the beginning of the month. In addition, the decline of games, railway construction and semiconductors was relatively small, while the decline of petroleum and petrochemical, industrial machine tools and nonferrous metals ranked first, with a decline of 15.70%, 13.26% and 13.26% respectively since the beginning of the month.
[profit forecast: the profit forecast of intelligent and digital industrial track is significantly revised upward month on month]
1) in March, the core industry track consistently predicted that the top changes in profit growth in 2022 are: optical optoelectronics, smart wear, online games, Internet of vehicles, smart grid, national defense and military industry, LNG, pharmaceutical e-commerce, driverless and coal.
2) in March, the core tertiary industries consistently predicted that the top changes in profit growth in 2022 are: oilfield services, lithium, metal products, potassium fertilizer, anthracite, power transmission and transformation equipment, nuclear power, lead-zinc and coking coal.
[valuation and cost performance: peg is generally less than 1 in high-end manufacturing and intelligent fields]
1) peg 1: general equipment, online games, smart medicine, express delivery, real estate, generic drugs, food and beverage, etc;
2) 1 peg 0.5: smart grid, prefabricated building, cloud computing, charging pile, national defense and military industry, CRO, industrial Internet, semiconductor, IDC, network security, operating system, etc;
3) peg 0.5: auto parts, Internet of vehicles, automobile, basic chemical industry, new energy vehicles, new materials, photovoltaic, UHV, photoresist, smart home, lithium battery, intelligent transportation, coal, 5g, optical optoelectronics and driverless
[business observation] 2022q1 performance may continue to exceed expectations in the following directions: cyclical products (potash fertilizer, shipping, coking coal, lead and zinc, fluorine chemical industry), new energy (lithium, cobalt, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , nuclear power, wind power), medical services (CXO, covid-19 testing), manufacturing (semiconductor, motor, electronic parts, machine tool equipment); Trade, express delivery, cloud infrastructure services, meat products, lifting and transportation equipment, lighting electricians are expected to usher in a dilemma reversal.
1) in terms of PPI chain, the boom remains high. Nonferrous metals represented by electrolytic aluminum and some chemicals continue to rise, and there has been a slight correction recently. China's electrolytic aluminum price rose sharply this month. The W1 price of South China spot was 22882 yuan / ton in March, up 8.44% month on month, and the W1 price of East China spot was 22894 yuan / ton in March, up 8.73% month on month. Meanwhile, the resumption of production continued to advance. As of March 5, the operating rate was 83.29%, up 0.66 PCT slightly from last week.
2) in terms of new energy chain, the price transmission of photovoltaic chain cells is smooth and the orders are sufficient. The price of battery chips has increased. In March, the price of W2 China single crystal M10 / G12 battery chips was raised to 1.15/1.16 yuan / W respectively, with an adjustment range of 0.01/0.02 yuan / W. Under the tight supply and demand pattern, downstream manufacturers are still more active in purchasing. At the same time, with large size as a significant representative, there are sufficient orders in the battery link, the production capacity continues to be in full production, and the production and commencement of components in March also increased significantly from January to February.
3) the two sessions released a large number of policy signals, and there was a large upward expectation difference in the national defense and military industry sector. The military budget increased by 7.1% year-on-year, breaking 7 for the first time since 2019, far exceeding market expectations.
Further, combined with the boom data tracking, we sort out some characteristic subdivisions that we can pay attention to:
1) price rise: energy metals, power semiconductors, rebar, feed, etc; 2) Orders rose sharply: new energy vehicles, antigen detection, IGBT, smart cars / families, etc; 3) Cost mitigation: meat products, chemicals (tires), etc; 4) Increase in volume and price: cultivate diamonds, potash fertilizer, cosmetics, agrochemicals, optical fiber and optical cable, etc; 5) Expansion: lithium, nickel ore, pet food, building advertising, etc; 6) Overseas exports: TDI, shipping, aluminum
Risk warning: the change of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; The policy promotion was less than expected
