Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of social services and transportation industries this week (March 14-march 18) were + 0.85% and - 2.56% respectively, ranking 4th and 21st respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by - 0.94%. Among the 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (March 14-march 18), tourism and scenic spots, hotel catering, airports and tourism retail increased by + 4.8%, + 4.0%, + 0.7% and + 0.0% respectively, ranking 2nd, 5th, 21st and 33rd respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from March 12 to March 18, China reported 14282 local confirmed cases (2072 last week), mainly in Jilin (Changchun, Jilin), Guangdong (Shenzhen), Shandong (Qingdao, Dezhou, Binzhou), Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhejiang (Jiaxing, Quzhou), Heilongjiang (Harbin), Fujian (Quanzhou), Hebei (Langfang, Cangzhou), Liaoning (Dalian, Yingkou, Shenyang), Shaanxi (Xi'an, Baoji) Gansu (Lanzhou) and other places. 2) Global: from March 12 to March 18, there were about 12.47 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, with a month on month increase of + 11%; The number of deaths increased by 35644, a month on month increase of - 23%. As of March 18, 2022, there were about 470 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 6.08 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from March 12 to March 18, about 230000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, down 10% month on month; A total of 7354 deaths were added, down 5% month on month. As of March 18, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States was about 81.39 million and the cumulative death was about 1 million. 4) UK: from March 12 to March 18, about 570000 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly diagnosed in the UK, up 37% month on month; There were 780 new deaths, up 6.1% month on month. As of March 18, 2022, covid-19 pneumonia in the UK has been diagnosed in about 20.24 million cases and died in about 160000 cases.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of March 18, the country has reported about 3.22 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 4.78 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from March 12 to March 18, an increase of 2% month on month. 2) Global: according to ourworldindata, as of March 18, about 10.99 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 64% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine. On March 16, China released the covid-19 virus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version 9): redefine the source of infection and optimize the isolation and discharge process. In the new scheme, asymptomatic infected persons are no longer included in the covid-19 virus infection source. At the same time, light diseases only need to be isolated in a centralized manner and do not need to be transferred to designated hospitals. The definition value of virus nucleic acid detection for discharge and contact isolation has also been relaxed.
Airport & aviation: RPK of aviation division increased month on month in February
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from March 12 to March 18, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 5672, a year-on-year decrease of 55.2% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of + 0.2% and - 59.5% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 27.2%.
2) aviation department: from March 12 to March 18, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 416, 937, 675, 151, 199 and 161 respectively, with the average of - 28%, - 26%, - 43%, - 8%, - 39% and - 41% respectively.
3) Air China Limited(601111) 2 month operation data: in February, Air China ask increased by 23% year-on-year in 2021, RPK increased by 2% year-on-year in 2021, passenger seat rate was 64%, and increased by 2.8% year-on-year in 2021.
4) China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) 2 month operation data: in February, China Eastern Airlines ask increased by 42% year-on-year in 2021, and RPK increased by 13% year-on-year in 2021; The occupancy rate was 64%, up 2.6% year-on-year in 2021.
5) China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) 2 month operation data: in February, China Southern Airlines ask increased by 43% year-on-year in 2021, RPK increased by 28% year-on-year in 2021, decreased by 48% year-on-year in 2020 and 49% year-on-year in 2019, and increased by 9% month on month; The occupancy rate was 68%, up 5% year-on-year in 2021.
6) Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 2 month operating data: in February, the spring and autumn ask increased by 35% year-on-year in 2021, RPK increased by 32% year-on-year in 2021, and the seating rate was 76%, an increase of 3% year-on-year in 2021.
7) Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 2 month operating data: in February, Jixiang ask increased by 29% year-on-year in 2021, RPK increased by 6% year-on-year in 2021, and the seating rate was 71%, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year in 2021.
8) Airport: from March 12 to March 18, according to the flight control data, the average daily takeoff and landing sorties of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Beijing Daxing and Shenzhen Bao'an were 616, 231, 203, 294, 279 and 125 respectively, up from - 25%, - 52%, - 54%, - 32% and - 30% respectively last week.
Tax exemption: the tax exemption discount on outlying islands was basically the same month on month
The daily number of flights between Meiya airport and Hailan airport decreased from January to march of last week, and the daily number of flights between Meiya airport and Hailan airport decreased from January to march of last week, respectively; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 36758, a decrease of 13.4% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the tax-free discounts of direct mail, China free outlying islands, China overseas travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month, and the discount of Haifa control was weakened month on month.
RevPAR of hotel industry in February 2022 + 35% year on year
According to STR data, in February 2022, 1) OCC: the hotel occupancy rate was 45.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.4pct in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of -11.4pct in 19 years, and a month-on-month increase of + 3.2pct. 2) ADR: the average room price of the hotel is 431.4 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7% in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of - 14% in 19 years and a month on month increase of + 8%. 3) RevPAR: Hotel RevPAR 194 5 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35% in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of - 31% in 19 years and a month on month increase of + 16%.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
The company is expected to expand its online + offline stores, which is expected to bring about a large expansion of the city.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
