The economic data from January to February are controversial, and the readings of some macro indicators are inconsistent with the micro body feeling. In addition, the signals given by different macro indicators are also quite different. The most classic difference is that economic data is hot and financial data is cold.
How to distinguish the signals given by different indicators is the most important problem we need to solve in observing the economy at the beginning of the year. The financial data reflect the real cash flow of the government's revenue and expenditure in the current period, with high confidence, which can be cross verified for other macro data. With the help of fiscal data from January to February, we can more clearly describe the economic outline of the beginning of the year.
First, the value-added tax and personal income tax are relatively strong, pointing to a pick-up in production in the beginning of the year.
The large year-on-year increase in value-added tax (6.1%) means that the current industrial production and service industry operation have improved compared with the second half of last year. From January to February, the year-on-year performance of individual income tax significantly exceeded the seasonality (46.9%), mainly due to the disturbance of tax policy. This can not be misinterpreted as the increase of tax intensity at the beginning of the year, and the subsequent individual income tax performance may return to normal again.
Second, the low income of subdivision taxes and land transfer means that the current scene of real estate sales and land transaction is low.
The weak data of real estate related taxes in the beginning of the year confirmed the sluggish real estate sales in the same period. The land transfer fee continues the negative growth trend since the third quarter of last year, indicating that the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land is still weak.
Third, the fiscal expenditure in the beginning of the year was relatively strong, the issuance of special bonds was on schedule and in large quantities, and the capital for infrastructure investment in the beginning of the year was relatively abundant.
Risk tip: the economic trend exceeded expectations and the real estate policy exceeded expectations; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
