Double coke rose sharply & the power coal was at a high level, and the Q1 profit of coal enterprises increased confidence
The high price of thermal coal fell this week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fell to about 1500 yuan / ton. Fundamentals of this week: the marginal demand weakened. On the one hand, the warmer weather accelerated the decline of civil power load, on the other hand, the epidemic situation affected the downstream construction, and the daily consumption of power plants fell. At the same time, due to the replenishment in the early stage, the terminal inventory remained stable, and with the expectation of further decline in daily consumption in the later stage, the pace of replenishment in the power plant slowed down. However, when the imported coal price is upside down, the import demand turns to domestic trade, which still supports the demand; On the supply side, the main production area has maintained stable production. Recently, coal mine accidents have occurred frequently, the safety production situation is severe, and local security inspection has been stopped and production has been reduced, resulting in disturbance. Overall, the current fundamentals have not weakened significantly, and the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. According to the later judgment, in the short term, although the daily consumption is facing a decline, there is a high probability that there is no off-season after the end of heating. First, the Russian Ukrainian war not only increases the international coal demand, but also affects the supply. Second, China’s steady growth demand is expected to replace the heating demand, and the coal price can still operate at a high level after the short-term physical return. There may be no expectation of substantial easing in the fundamentals of the whole year. From January to February 2022, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Under the background of sustained economic growth, the basic energy demand is still there. The steady growth policy drives the demand for infrastructure construction, and the demand side performance is relatively optimistic; In terms of supply, the recent meeting of the national development and Reform Commission proposed to take comprehensive measures to increase the effective production capacity of 300 million tons, with the national daily output of more than 12.6 million tons and the national coal reserve of 620 million tons. At the same time, we should make efforts to ensure the performance of the long-term association, and there is still policy guarantee for supply. It is expected that the whole year will be dominated by both supply and demand. In terms of coal price policy, power coal dual track focuses on long-term cooperation and ignores spot goods: the “four increases and one control” and “special verification of annual long-term cooperation” of the recent two-week meeting of the national development and Reform Commission are still focused on the coal power industry chain to ensure that the annual long-term cooperation of power coal is controlled within a reasonable range. Although the spot price is raised to the ceiling again, the actual quotation and overseas coal price are at a high level, and the upward elasticity can be corrected. In the future, the control direction is not extreme rise, and the price difference at home and abroad will remain high. However, there is no pressure of policy price control for coking coal. Under the background of accelerating the resumption of steel production, the upward certainty of coking coal price is high. The first quarterly profit forecast of coal enterprises once again proves the high profit of the industry. We believe that the current coal sector has high allocation value and is optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the high price of power coal fell this week, and the spot price is still flexible
This week (from March 14 to March 18, 2022), the high price of thermal coal fell, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fell to about 1500 yuan / ton. Fundamentals of this week: the marginal demand weakened. On the one hand, the warmer weather accelerated the decline of civil power load, on the other hand, the epidemic situation affected the downstream construction, and the daily consumption of power plants fell. At the same time, due to the replenishment in the early stage, the terminal inventory remained stable, and with the expectation of further decline in daily consumption in the later stage, the pace of replenishment in the power plant slowed down. However, when the imported coal price is upside down, the import demand turns to domestic trade, which still supports the demand; On the supply side, the main production area has maintained stable production. Recently, coal mine accidents have occurred frequently, the safety production situation is severe, and local security inspection has been stopped and production has been reduced, resulting in disturbance. Overall, the current fundamentals have not weakened significantly, and the downward pressure on coal prices is limited.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke continued to rise this week, and the resumption of production of downstream coke steel enterprises accelerated
Coke: the coke price rose by 200 yuan again this week. In terms of demand, with the end of the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games in March, the pressure on steel enterprises to limit production no longer exists. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills increased significantly, and the consumption of coal coke inventory increased; The supply side coke enterprises also show an upward trend in operating rate, and the coke fundamentals are strong in both supply and demand. The cost of superimposed coking coal has increased, and the coke price has increased with great support. Coking coal: coking coal prices continued to rise sharply this week, and tight supply formed a strong support. While coke steel enterprises accelerate the resumption of production, the coal in the field is relatively low, and the available days decline, forming a rigid demand for replenishment. However, at present, due to the weak rise of steel price, the profit of steel enterprises is low, and the demand for replenishment has not been fully released, so we still need to pay attention to the subsequent price transmission; On the supply side, before and after the two sessions, the origin was more affected by security inspection and environmental protection, the operating rate of coking coal mines declined, and the supply of origin tightened. On the whole, the tight supply of coking coal is expected to continue, and the downstream may usher in further demand release after passive destocking. Coking coal prices may continue to be on the high side.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
