Baijiu sector: Valuation in a reasonable range, Q1 has performance support. This year Baijiu sector callback range is larger. The main reason is that the international situation has affected the risk preference of capital market and China's epidemic control. However, in the long run, the trend of the concentration of Baijiu to high-end and brand quality is unchanged. This year's potential energy will continue. The current valuation is in a reasonable range, and the sector price ratio is high. At present, the valuation of the sector is in a reasonable range of 30-40x, basically facing the good trend. Judging from the business data disclosed by the current liquor enterprises from January to February, it has a bright performance and a smooth start. The performance in the first quarter will provide strong support for the sector. We believe that we should adhere to the strong certainty of the performance of high-end liquor in the whole year + actively embrace the performance elasticity of secondary high-end liquor, pay attention to the dividends brought by the promotion of national reform, and focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 。
Dairy industry: price increase to hedge cost pressure, optimize the competition pattern, and the gross sales difference is expected to continue to improve. After the epidemic, people's health awareness has improved and the demand for dairy products is strong. The price of raw milk has shown an upward trend since May 2020. At the beginning of March 2022, the price of raw milk has slightly decreased from the high level of 4.38 yuan / kg in 2021 to 4.21 yuan / kg, but it is still high compared with the average price of 3.79 yuan / kg in 2020. We expect that the price of raw milk will not rise sharply again in 2022 and remain at a relatively high price. In order to cope with the rise in the price of raw milk, raising the price and streamlining the investment of expenses and reducing promotion have become the main effective measures for dairy enterprises. Referring to the past, facing the increase in the price of raw milk from 2010 to 2013, Yili has taken price increase and fee control measures. The gross sales difference in 2011 and 2014 has increased by 2.49pct and 3.25pct respectively. We expect that the gross sales difference will also be improved in 2022. If the subsequent cost pressure slows down, the profitability of the leader is expected to be further improved, Recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , pay attention to Mengniu.
Beer industry: the short-term impact of cost side pressure is small, and the transmission of long-term price increase is expected to be smooth. 1) The average unit price of imported barley increased to 312.4 US dollars / ton (YoY + 21.8%) in February 2022, and the price of corrugated paper was 4739.8 yuan / ton (YoY + 16.6%) by the end of 2021. Due to the early locking of barley price and contingent packaging inventory, the cost side pressure had little short-term impact; 2) The high-end trend of the industry continues, and the transmission of price increase is expected to be smooth Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) launched the new packaging of white beer and cherry blossom season, and Singapore brewerkz launched the first probiotic raspberry brewed beer. The dynamic sales improved from January to February. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of wine increased by 1.8% year-on-year from January to February, and the sales volume of Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 1-february increased by 8.78% year-on-year, and the transmission expectation was gradually smooth; 3) Looking forward to 2022, consumer demand will continue to pick up after the epidemic, and the leader is expected to show strong toughness. Recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , and pay attention to China Resources beer and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the recovery of food demand is less than expected, and food safety problems
