The bottom of the market rebounded, and the varieties with upward prosperity of undervalued value are preferred
From March 14 to March 18, the food and beverage index fell by 3.6%, ranking 26th in the primary sub industry, about 2.7pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, health products (3.7%), other foods (0.0%) and dairy products (- 1.5%) are relatively leading. The market showed a V-shaped trend this week. Benefiting from the release of stable expectations and steady growth policies at the special meeting of the financial committee, the market began to stabilize and rebound. After a short-term decline in food and beverage valuation, it may be repaired with the overall market, but the food and beverage sector depends more on performance growth. The core market variable is the epidemic situation. At present, the epidemic situation is spreading, and consumption is limited from the perspective of scene. Those with high relevance to catering, such as condiments, beer and brine products, are restricted, while varieties with hoarding demand, such as quick-frozen food, benefit in the short term. Taking into account the emergence of drugs and changes in epidemic prevention policies, the impact rate of the follow-up epidemic situation will probably improve. At that time, the damaged stocks of the epidemic situation are expected to usher in the repair market. We give priority to the Baijiu sector, and the demand is strong, and the cost is small. In the future, we can still make optimistic outlook, and rank the top Baijiu and the top end enterprises. The medium and long-term dimension of beer is optimistic about the opportunities for enterprise profit release brought by price increase and structural upgrading in 1-2 years. The demand for dairy products is stable and less affected by the epidemic, which is suitable for configuration and defense strategy. In the short term, seasoning is due to the release of report performance caused by the low base and price increase effect in the second quarter. In the long term, the industry will repair after the epidemic is effectively controlled. There are two ideas for the bottom layout: first, the bottom is held for a long time. It is suggested to choose varieties with high prosperity and reasonable valuation, focusing on high-quality industry leaders; The second is the short-term participation of game elasticity. It is suggested to find varieties with undervalued value or high performance growth.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) forecasts 1-2 months of revenue and profit of 20% over expected growth, showing the Spring Festival high-end Baijiu sales trend, but also reflects the obvious effect of sales reform. Considering the supply of base liquor, it is expected that the planned revenue target rate will accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) forecast 2021q4 to achieve revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of about 11%. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of movable sales is good. After the management of the company is stable, it is expected to carry out the work of raising prices. It is estimated that the double-digit growth rate will be completed in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is estimated that the revenue and profit from January to February will increase by more than 35% and 50%, mainly due to the significant improvement of product structure, the growth momentum under the epidemic situation remains unchanged, and the annual performance is still possible to exceed expectations. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : equity incentive is implemented. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry will start a new round of formula upgrading to accelerate the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Plate Market Review: Food and beverage underperformed the market
From March 14 to March 18, the food and beverage index fell by 3.6%, ranking 26th in the primary sub industry, about 2.7pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, health products (3.7%), other foods (0.0%) and dairy products (- 1.5%) are relatively leading. In terms of individual stocks, Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) , Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) and other stocks rose ahead Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Tonghua Grape Wine Co.Ltd(600365) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) and others led the decline.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
