Key investment points:
HPV vaccine is the first recognized and effective preventive cancer vaccine in the world. Cervical cancer is one of the highest cancer incidence and mortality rates in the world, and China accounts for 20% of the new incidence rate of cervical cancer worldwide. The study found that persistent infection of high-risk HPV virus is the main cause of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination can significantly reduce the incidence rate. WHO is recommended as a primary prevention method for cervical cancer, and is also included in the national immunization program by many countries, which has significant economic benefits.
HPV vaccine research and development is difficult, long cycle, high investment and high barriers to entry. Due to the difficulty of virus like particle technology and high development requirements, and the clinical research and development of HPV vaccine needs to take cervical lesions as the clinical end point, it takes at least 15 years from project approval to market, with a long cycle; From overseas, the R & D cost is about US $1 billion and the investment is large, which makes the entry barrier of HPV vaccine high. At present, only three companies in the world have products on the market.
With heavy snow on Changpo, China’s 100 billion market demand will be gradually released. The market penetration rate of HPV vaccine stock in China is only 5.2%, and there is still much room for improvement. In the future, with the improvement of vaccination awareness and policy promotion, the vaccination rate of 9-15 years old / 16-45 years old will reach about 70% and 25% – 30% respectively. It is estimated that the total demand of HPV vaccine in China is 268 million, and the cumulative demand of only female market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. In the future, with the approval of male indications, the Chinese market is expected to usher in another peak.
Long term supply exceeds demand, and the competition pattern is good. From 2006 to 2021, there were only three manufacturers in the world, and four HPV vaccines were approved for marketing Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) since its listing at the end of 2019, it is the third HPV vaccine supplier in the world and the first HPV vaccine supplier in China. The competition pattern is good. It is expected that the number of products listed in China will be only 1-2 in the next two years. At present, the penetration rate of women aged 9-15 in developing countries is only 9%, and only one overseas company is in the clinical stage. In the future, the supply will still exceed the demand, and the overseas market is expected to become another important market.
Investment advice
As the first cancer preventive vaccine, the effectiveness of HPV vaccine has been verified by many countries. Due to production capacity constraints, the world has been in short supply for a long time. With the listing of domestic vaccines, the production capacity is gradually released, which is expected to usher in a 100 billion market. Key recommendations: Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ; Suggested attention: Kangle guard, Ruike biology, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142)
Risk tips
Competition intensifies risk, price decline risk, penetration release speed is lower than expected risk, R & D is lower than expected risk, and sales is lower than expected risk.
