Industry changes this week
1) cement: the national cement market price this week was 513.8 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. This week, the national cement storage capacity ratio was 57.71%, with a month on month decrease of 2.1 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points. The cement shipment rate was 59.7%, with a month on month increase of 2.7 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9 percentage points.
2) glass: the average price of white glass in China this week was 226608 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 5.0% and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The glass inventory was 53.72 million heavy boxes, up 5.91% month on week and 135.40% year-on-year; The utilization rate of glass capacity this weekend was 72.05%, up 1.08% year-on-year.
Investment strategy this week
Cement sector: at present, the current round of epidemic is still in multi-point outbreak, and the transmission range is gradually expanding. Although the data of national cement shipment rate and storage capacity ratio continue to improve, it is not ruled out that the epidemic will affect the construction of downstream customers and have a great impact on the shipment of cement enterprises in the future. On the demand side, the main data of real estate investment, sales, new construction and construction have significantly exceeded market expectations, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has reached 8.1%, far exceeding the average level since 2018 (except for the high base factor in the first half of last year), which is conducive to supporting the demand for cement. On the cost side, recently, with the continuous promotion of various measures to stabilize and increase production, the national coal output has remained at a high level. Since the middle and late February, the national daily coal output has remained above 12 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10%. The coal output has increased, stabilized the coal price and reduced the cement cost. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
Real estate industry chain: on March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. With regard to real estate enterprises, it was proposed to timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model. At the same time, the CBRC held a special meeting to encourage institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. We believe that the holding of this meeting will help underpin the real estate industry, stabilize the development of the real estate industry and boost the demand of the real estate industry chain. We suggest that we should focus on the attention of ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) etc.
Glass: this week, China’s float glass market is weak and downward, and prices in most regions have been reduced by different ranges. In the northern region, the delivery of some manufacturers is limited, and the local price decline is obvious. Under the impact of the supply of goods in North China and Northeast China, the prices in the southern region fell. On the whole, the new orders of downstream processing plants are insufficient, the lack of orders is still prominent, the wait-and-see in the middle and lower reaches is strong, and the short-term market is expected to continue the weak pattern. Pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) etc.
Risk warning: the completion is not as expected, the real estate is falling faster than expected, and the industry coordination is broken.
