In the era of affordable Internet access, cost reduction and efficiency increase are still the key factors to promote the further development of photovoltaic. From a global perspective, at present, photovoltaic has become the lowest cost power generation form in most countries and regions, realizing the parity of power generation side on the Internet. However, due to the intermittence, randomness and volatility of photovoltaic power generation, it needs other power sources to adjust peak and frequency for it when connected to the existing power grid, or add large-scale long-term energy storage. Therefore, from the perspective of power system, photovoltaic has not achieved parity, and further cost reduction and efficiency increase are needed. Therefore, in order to build a new and more efficient power system, we must focus on the progress of new energy technology.
We believe that the current iteration of high-efficiency battery technology is an inevitable trend for the further decline of lcoe and the further development of photovoltaic industry. Starting from the current time point, the mass production / pilot production line of the new generation of high-efficiency batteries of various enterprises will enter the intensive equipment delivery and commissioning stage. At the same time, the equipment commissioning parameters of many equipment enterprises will be disclosed, and the direct competition for the terminal market will begin in early 22. This round of switching of the mainstream technology route from p-type to n-type will also have an important impact on the competition pattern in the main industrial chain, auxiliary materials, consumables, equipment and other fields. We expect that from 2022, n-type products will be gradually introduced to the market on a large scale to replace perc.
In addition to paying attention to the maximum mass production efficiency of TOPCON / hjt of various enterprises, we still can't ignore: whether the technical route itself is suitable for the current mass production, whether the yield can be further improved, and whether the route of improving efficiency and reducing cost is fast and feasible? Combined with the characteristics of mainstream n-type technology and the actual situation of the industry, this report makes an in-depth analysis on the main technical route, technical difficulties and development of current n-type technology, and makes a reasonable inference on the industrialization process of n-type technology according to the actual situation of the current industry.
TOPCON benefits from the upgrading of existing perc capacity of a certain scale in the industry and is expected to occupy more market share. The competition of n-type technology route is essentially the competition of efficiency and cost. Therefore, on the premise that perc technology is still the mainstream in the world, with overcapacity and the technical efficiency of TOPCON and hjt (mainly reflected in the component end) is still tied, the cost is particularly important for the selection of n-type Technology. Since the newly-built perc production lines after 2019 basically reserve the layout space for upgrading to TOPCON, and the investment in the new construction and upgrading of single GW of TOPCON is low, compared with the investment of single GW of hjt of RMB 400450 million, the cost advantage is significant, and the cost can be further reduced through the improvement of yield and the replacement of domestic silver paste. Therefore, TOPCON is expected to occupy the mainstream position in the n-type battery market in the next 2-3 years.
In the long run, hjt is more in line with the development trend of industrial technology. Compared with TOPCON, the cost reduction and efficiency increase route of hjt is clearer. Hjt has better compatibility with laminated technologies such as silicon wafer slicing and future perovskite, so there is more room for improving efficiency and reducing cost. With the further decline of equipment investment, the continuous improvement of efficiency, the thinning of silicon wafer, the introduction of microcrystalline silicon technology, the popularization of annealing impurity absorption technology, and the maturity of low-temperature silver slurry and silver clad copper technology, the cost of hjt is expected to decline rapidly. When the single watt production cost of hjt technology is not much different from that of TOPCON Technology (expected in 20232024), and the downstream has made a breakthrough in the verification of new metallization technologies such as silver clad copper and electroplating, hjt's market share is expected to increase rapidly.
Investment advice
Key recommendations: 1) leading integrated component leaders in R & D and mass production layout in the field of new battery technology: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, etc; 2) Specialized battery manufacturer: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) etc; 3) Equipment companies benefiting from n-type technological transformation: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , etc. Risk statement
The development of new technology is less than expected; The cost reduction speed is lower than expected; The speed of mass production is lower than expected
