Japan earthquake: according to the news of China Earthquake Network, at 22:34 p.m. and 22:36 p.m. Beijing time on March 16, earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 (37.62 degrees north latitude and 141.99 degrees east longitude) and earthquakes of magnitude 7.4 (37.65 degrees north latitude and 141.95 degrees east longitude) occurred one after another off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. After the earthquake, power outages occurred in many places in Fukushima and Tokyo, and tsunami warnings were issued in Miyagi and Fukushima, Japan. Referring to the location of the production bases of tok, Xinyue chemical and other chemical companies, we expect that the earthquake may affect the supply of KrF and ARF semiconductor photoresist, silicone and other products, and form a positive impact on relevant Chinese enterprises under the background of short supply of relevant products. In addition, if the earthquake affects the citral production capacity of kelaoli, it will aggravate the problem of insufficient supply of citral in the market, thus pushing up the VA price and benefiting vitamin enterprises such as Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) and so on.
The chemical sector is expected to usher in valuation repair: as of March 18, the overall pe-ttm of CITIC basic chemical sector was about 24.5 times, and it has fluctuated downward since the beginning of 2021. At present, the pettm of CITIC basic chemical sector is at the 23.7% quantile since 2017, with configuration value Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) and other leading listed companies in the chemical industry have successively issued new repurchase plans since the beginning of 2022 to boost market confidence. In addition, on March 16, the financial commission of the State Council made a clear statement on hot market issues, which fully enhanced the confidence of the capital market. On March 18, the leaders of China and the United States held a frank and in-depth dialogue and reached a constructive consensus, releasing a positive signal of further easing of China US relations. Driven by the above positive signals, we believe that the subsequent chemical sector is expected to usher in valuation repair.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most of the sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a decline. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.95%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.94%, and the gem index rose by 1.81%. CITIC basic chemical industry fell by 1.2%, ranking 11th in all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a decline. The top five sub sectors were carbon fiber (+ 6.5%), lithium chemicals (+ 5.4%), rubber additives (+ 2.8%), polyester (+ 1.7%) and civil explosives (+ 1.6%). The last five sub sectors of the rise and fall range are synthetic resin (- 9.6%), soda ash (- 5.6%), compound fertilizer (- 5.3%), phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical (- 5.1%), polyurethane (- 4.7%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) (+ 31.95%), Shenzhen Rongda Photosensitive & Technology Co.Ltd(300576) (+ 22.21%), Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.Ltd(002971) (+ 17.03%), Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) (+ 16.70%), Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) (+ 15.63%). In the past five trading days, the stocks with the largest decline in the basic chemical sector are: Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) (- 21.54%), Jiangsu Yida Chemical Co.Ltd(300721) (- 19.08%), Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) (- 15.96%), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (- 14.87%), Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) (- 12.03%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
