Main points
The home appliance sector rose by – 1.8% this week, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sectors were – 2.0% / – 1.8% / – 1.0% / + 0.2% respectively. The sector oversold in the early stage and made some correction this week. The price of raw materials fell, and the prices of LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics were + 1.0%, – 2.6%, – 0.2% and – 4.4% month on month, respectively.
Social zero recovery was better than expected, and the growth rate of household appliance social zero ranked first. From January to February, the zero year-on-year growth rate of household appliance cooperatives was 12.7%, and the growth rate increased significantly month on month. From January to February, the total amount of social zero was 7.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the growth rate increased by 5pct month on month, and the overall recovery was better than expected. Among them, the total amount of household electrical appliances was 132.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the growth rate increased by 18.7 PCT month on month.
Air conditioning shipments are relatively stable, and Haier’s air conditioning exports are bright. From January to February, the sales of air conditioners were basically the same as last year, and the performance was still better than that of domestic sales under the high base of export sales. Due to the disturbance of Spring Festival holiday factors, from January to February, the sales volume of air conditioning increased by 1%, including domestic sales decreased by 4% and export increased by 5%. At present, the export data is better than expected. Haier goes to sea with its own brand. At present, the export situation is relatively good. From the perspective of brands, Midea’s air-conditioning sales in domestic sales from January to February were basically the same, Haier achieved a positive growth of 5%, and Midea’s and Haier’s market share increased by 1.7 and 1.0pct to 38.2% and 11.2% respectively. In terms of export sales, Gree and Haier had higher growth rates of 18% and 47% respectively, and their market share increased by 1.9 and 2.3pct to 16.1% and 8.1% respectively.
Investment advice
Faced with many uncertainties in the external environment such as raw materials and shipping in 2022, it is recommended to select tracks with strong certainty. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) emerging home appliance tracks with both growth and certainty, including floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. Focus on Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , which accurately grasp the needs of consumers, adhere to independent research and development, hold high and fight high, and have excellent product and brand power. The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic intelligent micro investment leader with leading technology and all-round barriers to consumer goods Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
2) demand and profit continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. There is ample room for the long-term growth of small kitchen appliances. Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) domestic sales continue to promote new products and expand categories to drive revenue growth. After the mitigation of shipping, the demand for overseas orders is expected to be released. It is suggested to focus on it. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which complies with the demand of consumption upgrading, maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves profitability.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
