Sub industry core week view
Regulation & Supply and demand are relatively eased, and upstream prices tend to be stable. Lithium, nickel and other prices fluctuated too much in the early stage, causing market concern. Recently, the State Department interviewed upstream enterprises, superimposed with the decline in the acceptance of the middle and lower reaches and the increase in the month on month increase of Salt Lake supply, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen recently. In addition, after the futures prices of Lun nickel and Shanghai nickel tended to stabilize, the downstream nickel sulfate price stabilized at about 50000. On the whole, the price of upstream resource products is expected to stabilize in stages.
Recently, downstream main engine manufacturers began to raise prices one after another, and the new orders in Q2 will be the touchstone of terminal prosperity. Recently, after Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) started to raise prices, car companies such as Xiaopeng also began to raise prices, and the downstream entered the tide of price increase. Since the oil price has increased significantly this year, especially in Europe and the United States, we expect that the impact of the price increase of electric vehicle terminals on demand is relatively limited. Due to the large backlog of orders such as Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) etc., the sales index lags behind to some extent. Considering the interference of the epidemic in March, adding new orders in April will be the key to test the prospect of price increase.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has limited disturbance to the supply chain. At present, the shutdown of wire harness factories in Ukraine has had some impact on the production of Volkswagen and BMW. Lenny and several other factories in Ukraine have indeed shut down, and the proportion of wire harness supply in Ukraine in Europe is less than 5%. Lenny has a total of 32 factories in Europe, of which there are only 2 factories in Ukraine, accounting for a relatively small proportion. We expect that the harness factor has little impact on the production of complete vehicles in Europe, mainly due to the turmoil in Ukraine in the early stage, and most industrial chain companies have transferred important production capacity. For example, Lenny’s harness in Ukraine is mainly non passenger vehicle harness; Secondly, the production capacity of wire harness companies in Romania will be transferred to other regions.
Q2 sector market can be expected, the whole year “light total weight structure”. On the premise that the price of resource products stabilizes, if the demand is still strong after the downstream price increase, Q2 sector will usher in a reversal. Throughout the year, we believe that it is more important to lighten the total volume and emphasize the structure, and find the points with higher structure than expected or high certainty. (1) Terminal: market segmentation and car enterprise differentiation. Optimistic about Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal and other leading car companies; (2) Midstream: focus on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain targets; Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), pet copper foil, silicon carbon, heat management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; The direction of improving localization rate: high-end carbon black, controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields; Leading enterprises with strong competitiveness through cycle fluctuation: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) and other leading enterprises in all links of batteries and materials.
Important industry events this week
1. Comments on the performance forecast of Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) 21 years. 2. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) performance review
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
