Basic conclusion
Demand side: the social zero recovery was better than expected, and the integrated stove and floor washer maintained a high growth rate. Social zero recovery was better than expected, and the zero growth rate of household appliance society ranked first. From January to February, the zero growth rate of household appliance society ranked first, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.7%, and the growth rate increased significantly month on month. White electricity: weak demand, channel differentiation, and positive growth of online air conditioners and washing machines. Kitchen electricity: there is pressure under the range hood line, and the integrated stove continues high growth in all channels. Small household appliances: the pressure of high base slowed down, and the decline of most brands narrowed. Cleaning appliances: the sales volume of floor sweepers has declined, and the sales volume of floor washers has maintained high growth.
Upstream: continue to pay attention to the price fluctuation of raw materials, and the shipping price has dropped. Affected by geopolitics such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of main raw materials fluctuated greatly. From the beginning of the year to March 10, the prices of main raw materials LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics increased by 5.0%, 25.6%, 4.7% and 7.5% respectively. The cost side of enterprises continued to be under pressure. Affected by the high base of 21h1, the real estate data fell from January to February, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic under the expectation of stable growth policy. Since February, shipping prices have dropped significantly.
Prospect of performance: in the first quarter, the growth category of household appliances such as floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors corresponding to Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) / Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) maintained a high boom, and the revenue growth is expected to be about 30%. Most companies mainly engaged in export sales still face high base pressure, and their performance is under pressure due to external factors such as raw materials and shipping. It is expected that the second quarter may usher in an inflection point. Specifically, Xinbao's domestic independent brand has been steadily repaired since the second half of the year. Considering the pressure of the high base of export sales in the same period last year, it is expected that the domestic and export sales revenue in Q1 will be flat, and the performance growth rate under profit repair will be 3%. Haier's refrigerator export sales improved month on month in January. The revenue growth rate of 22q1 is expected to be + 10%, the results of cost reduction and efficiency improvement continue to appear, and the performance growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than the revenue growth rate.
Investment advice
Faced with many uncertainties in the external environment such as raw materials and shipping in 2022, it is recommended to select tracks with strong certainty. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) emerging home appliance tracks with both growth and certainty, including floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. Focus on Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , which accurately grasp the needs of consumers, adhere to independent research and development, hold high and fight high, and have excellent product and brand power. The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic intelligent micro investment leader with leading technology and all-round barriers to consumer goods Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
2) demand and profit continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. There is ample room for the long-term growth of small kitchen appliances. Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) domestic sales continue to promote new products and expand categories to drive revenue growth. After the mitigation of shipping, the demand for overseas orders is expected to be released. It is suggested to focus on it. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which complies with the demand of consumption upgrading, maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves profitability.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
