Industry views and investment suggestions
A shares fell first and then rose sharply this week, and the trend of social service industry is stronger than the market. Hotels, scenic spots, travel agencies and other fine-grained industries came out of the repair market, and the resilience of the tax-free industry was relatively weak, with a decline of – 5.4% this week.
The situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is grim, and the inter provincial team tour has stalled again. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased significantly, and the epidemic has spread to most provinces in China again. Local prevention and control policies have become stricter. According to the circuit breaker policy, inter provincial team travel is almost at a standstill, and business travel is also subject to certain restrictions. Over the past two years, China has accumulated a lot of experience in prevention and control measures. It is expected that the epidemic will be controlled in the short term. The sharp rebound of the social service industry this week also shows the optimistic expectation of the market.
Many overseas countries have gradually relaxed entry-exit control. At present, the severe and lethal rates of Omicron mutant strains prevalent all over the world are very low, and many overseas countries begin to relax entry-exit policies. At present, six EU countries and the European economic area have lifted all travel restrictions on covid-19 pneumonia. In addition, Vietnam, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Australia and other countries have also successively introduced measures to relax restrictions or open borders. At present, China still adheres to the “dynamic clearing” policy, but according to the civil aviation development plan of the 14th five year plan issued by the Civil Aviation Administration, international flights have been gradually resumed since 2023, and international tourism is expected to resume.
The National Health Commission issued the ninth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan for new coronary pneumonia, which is conducive to the recovery of tourism. Compared with the eighth edition, the changes mainly include: 1. Adding antigen detection as a supplement. 2. Classified treatment of cases, light centralized isolation management, ordinary to severe designated hospitals. 3. Two covid-19 specific drugs approved by the State Food and drug administration were included in the diagnosis and treatment plan. 4. Speed up the process of reasonable release and discharge of patients. The “14 day isolation management and health status monitoring” after discharge is revised to “release isolation management or continue 7-day home health monitoring after discharge”. Less restrictions on the detection and treatment of the epidemic, and more conducive to the lifting of restrictions on the flow of new people in the tourism industry.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the development space of China’s tax-free industry and continue to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . In addition, the leaders of fine molecule industry Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ..
Plate Market
In this period (from March 14 to March 18), the leisure service industry index rose by 0.85%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.94% in the same period. The leisure service industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.79pct, ranking fourth among the 28 Shenwan industries..
Risk tips: systemic risk, epidemic risk, policy promotion, lower than expected business conditions and other risks.
