Crude oil: prices fell sharply. Early in the week, Iran’s nuclear negotiations were suspended, and Europe and the United States decided to take further sanctions against Russia. However, Russia and Ukraine are trying to end the conflict through diplomacy. The United States may lift oil sanctions against Venezuela to increase crude oil supply. In addition, the impact of public health events on demand, crude oil prices rose first and then fell. In the late part of the week, Russia and Ukraine promoted the ceasefire negotiations. Investors realized that Europe would not immediately stop Russia’s oil supply, and the concerns about oil supply in the market were alleviated. At the same time, the epidemic situation in some countries and regions rebounded or restrained demand. In addition, the growth of US commercial crude oil inventory and the US continued to release 30 million barrels of strategic reserve oil, the international crude oil price continued to fall. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 104.74 (- 13.94) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 101.17 (- 13.97) USD / barrel.
PX: the market has weakened significantly. Crude oil prices fluctuated and fell because the United States banned the import of Russian crude oil, significantly increased OPEC + production and IEA may continue to play the game of storage; During the week, the overall supply of PX market declined, a set of small devices in South China began to be overhauled, the downstream PTA market demand continued to weaken, and the supply and demand performance of PX market continued to be weak; superimposed on the insufficient support of crude oil market, the PX market lacked support, and the center of gravity operated upward. The listing price of a mainstream factory in China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 121228 (- 37.44) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 451.53 (+ 68.17) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 170.07 (+ 42.50) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 79.63% (- 2.70pct).
PTA: the market center of gravity is declining. Crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, which had a short impact on the downstream market; From the perspective of PTA market itself, although the industrial processing fee has improved, it is still low. The willingness of PTA factory maintenance has gradually increased. The downstream polyester maintains high demand, and the supply and demand has been removed from the warehouse. However, due to the weak performance of the terminal market and the epidemic in some regions, it is difficult to realize effective transmission in the industrial chain. Although the removal of supply and demand from the warehouse supports the strengthening of PTA spot basis, However, it is difficult to form upward support; the superimposed cost side support is insufficient, and the PTA market is weak and declining. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 584571 (- 495.00) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is -399.56 (- 271.72) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 67.70% (+ 0.10pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1923000 (- 12000) tons.
MEG: the market price center fell. The price of crude oil fell sharply, the international price of naphtha followed the decline, the price of power coal was high, and the cost support was weak. From the supply side, in terms of the start-up of Chinese units this week, two sets of units in China were shut down, the load of some units was reduced, and China’s output was reduced compared with last week. In terms of ports, the port inventory was slightly reduced, but the overall inventory was still high. Therefore, the supply side provided a certain positive support this week. In terms of demand, at present, the overall demand of the terminal market is low, the production and marketing of the polyester industry is light and difficult to change, and the production pressure of enterprises is increasing. Some enterprises have started to stop due to the production pressure. The principle of just need to be cautious is still continued in terms of raw material procurement, and the overall demand side is still weak. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 510214 (- 422.14) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 956100 (+ 0.54) tons, and the operating rate is 70.20% (+ 1.20pct).
Polyester filament: market weakness fell. At the beginning of the week, the international oil price fell, the polyester raw material end also fell, the cost end support weakened, the cash flow of polyester filament recovered, and most filament manufacturers reported stable prices, but the terminal orders were not issued for a long time, and the downstream market was light. Crude oil prices continued to decline in the middle of the week, superimposed on the high inventory pressure of filament enterprises, filament manufacturers had a strong willingness to ship, and their quotations were reduced one after another. However, compared with PTA and MEG, the price difference was wider, but the demand was weak and difficult to improve. Affected by the epidemic, logistics and transportation in some areas are blocked. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy842000 (- 144.29) yuan / ton, fdy902143 (+ 150.00) yuan / ton and dty997800 yuan 57 (- 135.71) yuan / ton, and the industry’s average profit per ton is POY + 337.14 (+ 282.04) yuan / ton and fdy470.00 yuan / ton respectively 83 (+ 477.36) yuan / ton and DTY + 508.76 (+ 287.73) yuan / ton. The stock days of polyester filament enterprises are poy26.5 yuan / ton respectively 50 (+ 1.50) days, fdy27 50 (+ 1.00) days and dty31 00 (+ 2.00) days, the operating rate is 88.90% (-0.60pct).
Weaving: the market atmosphere is cold. The epidemic is frequent, the logistics transportation in some areas is inconvenient, the domestic sales are blocked, and the foreign trade sea freight continues to rise, and there are few orders, resulting in oversupply in the downstream market. In addition, the price of raw materials fluctuates too much recently, the price of grey cloth in the downstream is difficult to rise, and the profit is low. Accordingly, the enterprise’s production enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is cold. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.86% (+ 0.20pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 34.00 (+ 0.50) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fell broadly. At the beginning of the week, the crude oil price weakened, the cost side support was insufficient, and the disk decline of relevant futures during the superimposed day was obvious. Then, the crude oil fell sharply, the cost support collapsed, and the epidemic situation in China was aggravated, the transportation was limited, and the superimposed terminal demand continued to be weak, so the enterprises reduced the quotation again. In the late part of the week, the Federal Reserve released the signal of raising interest rates, which led to the continued weakening of oil prices. Under the dual drag of cost and demand, the price of staple fiber fell again. However, recently, many large staple fiber enterprises have reduced production and burden, and the spot supply in the market has decreased, which has restrained the decline of staple fiber market to a certain extent. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 770714 (- 521.43) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 29.93 (+ 31.73) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 1.80 (+ 0.30) days, and the operating rate is 80.20% (- 5.90pct).
Polyester bottle chip: market shock downward. On the supply side, the start-up of enterprises is basically stable, and the market supply is acceptable. China’s polyester bottle and chip factory inventory increased slightly. This week, the crude oil market fell broadly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream pessimism was strong, and there were few market transactions. On the demand side, due to the recent impact of the epidemic, some terminal enterprises have reduced their start-up, and it is difficult to pick up the goods, and the demand has become increasingly cold. In addition, the high level of the crude oil market has fallen recently, the downstream has strong pessimism, cautious offer and few market transactions. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 821786 (- 439.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 501.65 (+ 86.25) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 95.20% (+ 1.50pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to March 18, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 131.05%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by – 1.01%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 10.93%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
