This week’s topic
Recently, the land stock connect had a net outflow for eight consecutive trading days. This week, we analyzed the situation of industries and individual stocks in this large-scale outflow of foreign capital from the stock market value held by land stock connect and its proportion in the circulating market value.
Core view
Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic, the northward funds flowed out for eight consecutive trading days
Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the severe epidemic situation, northward funds continued to flow out in the second week and the first three days of the third week of March. Specifically, the weekly net outflow of funds from the north in the second week of March was as high as 36.320 billion yuan. Since the opening of the land stock connect, the net outflow of the week ranked the third in the weekly net outflow. In the first two days of the third week of March, the net outflow was still as high as 30.433 billion yuan, and then the rhythm of the net outflow of funds from the North slowed down significantly, and changed from net outflow to net inflow.
Industry analysis: the position proportion of land stock connect in the public utilities sector has been relatively stable in the past two weeks
In the past two weeks, the position proportion of land stock link in six industries is still rising, and the rest have decreased, among which the public utilities are relatively stable. According to the statistics of the shareholding ratio changes of various industries according to the classification of Shenwan level industries, the results show that a total of six industries are in an upward trend, namely agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, electrical equipment, national defense and military industry, building decoration and public utilities. Among them, the shareholding ratio of public utilities is relatively stable, with an increase of about 0.004 percentage points in recent two weeks. The shareholding ratio of land stock link in other industries has declined. The three industries with the largest decline are leisure services, household appliances and steel, which have decreased by 0.64, 0.29 and 0.24 percentage points respectively in the past two weeks.
Stock analysis: the top ten companies in the market value of capital positions in the north of the utility sector are concentrated in power
In the public utilities sector, the top ten companies with the market value of northward capital positions are concentrated in the power sector. As of March 18, the top ten companies with the market value of land stock link’s positions were mainly concentrated in the power sector, accounting for eight seats in total. The gas and environmental protection sectors take one seat respectively, namely Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) . Among them, the highest market value of land stock link’s position is China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , amounting to 39.627 billion yuan. The market value of positions held by other companies is less than 3 billion yuan. In the past two weeks, the top ten companies that have increased the proportion of capital positions in the north are concentrated in the power sector. From March 7 to March 18, eight of the ten subjects with the largest increase in the position proportion of land stock connect were power subjects. Among them, the proportion of Longyuan Power land stock link’s position in the circulating market value increased by 1.37 percentage points to 2.60% China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) land stock link’s position in the current market value increased by 0.96 percentage points to 3.76%. In addition, among the top ten companies with increased capital positions in the north, the environmental protection target accounts for Tus Environmental Science And Technology Development Co.Ltd(000826) , and the gas target accounts for China Suntien Green Energy Corporation Limited(600956) . In the past two weeks, the top ten companies with reduced capital positions in the north are concentrated in the water and environmental protection sectors. From March 7 to March 18, among the top ten subjects with the largest reduction in the proportion of positions held by land stock connect, the subjects of water affairs, environmental protection and electricity accounted for four, three and two respectively. In addition, there was one subject of gas.
Investment suggestion: in this round of northward capital outflow, the shareholding of land stock connect in the public utility sector is relatively stable and is less affected by capital outflow. We believe that the energy transformation continues to advance, and the installed capacity of Fengguang is expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, the rising trend of electricity price will continue in 2022, and part of the electricity traded in the market is expected to benefit from the dividend of electricity price rise. In addition, the state has intensively issued favorable policies for energy storage, and the scale of energy storage is expected to expand rapidly in the future. In terms of specific targets, it is suggested to focus on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)], and the new energy operator is suggested to focus on [Longyuan Power (a + H)] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ] [Shuifa Xingye energy]; Suggestions on the subject of energy storage operation focus on [ Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) ] [ Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) ], etc.
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the power demand is less than expected, the risk of price reduction, the risk of coal price fluctuation, the expansion of the impact of covid-19 epidemic, etc.
