Core view
The A-share index finally closed slightly lower this week, and the gem closed red. However, the market broke down sharply in the first half of the week, and recovered rapidly in the second half of the week. The ranking performance of the machinery industry was acceptable. We believe that in the first quarter of 2022, the pressure on China’s economy to maintain growth continued to increase, and the performance of export-oriented manufacturing industry was better than expected, but the boom fell month on month. From the perspective of the 14 major goals of China’s basic energy, digital manufacturing and digital manufacturing, as well as the reconstruction of the supply chain in 2022, we need to continue to pay close attention to the five major priorities of China’s basic infrastructure and digital manufacturing, as well as the recovery of new equipment in 2022.
This week is the third week of March 2022. The performance of real estate, non bank, medicine and social services is the best, the weekly rise and fall are positive, and the performance of steel, public utilities, environmental protection, coal, food and beverage is the worst. Compared with last week, this week again showed an obvious seesaw effect. The oversold sector rebounded significantly in the early stage, and the oversold sector adjusted in the early stage. Among the concept sectors, electronic ID card, covid-19 special medicine, power battery, travel and photoresist have the best performance; Baijiu, beverage manufacturing, oil and gas exploitation, wind power generation and photovoltaic inverters and other sectors are the worst performing, most of which are the concept of overshoot in the early stage, and the wheel is turning up.
The market fell sharply in the first half of the week due to the performance of overseas markets, the expected impact of the expansion of sanctions against Russia and the sharp decline of stocks in the United States and China, but rebounded sharply in the second half of the week after the meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee. In terms of the index, it is expected to continue to rebound next week, but it is not highly optimistic. Once blocked, it will again focus on the trend of range shock. From the perspective of structure, the market still shows a trend of rapid rotation of rise and fall, killing the fall over the rise and making up the rise over the fall. This trend is expected to continue. The new energy sector dominated by lithium batteries belongs to the technical pullback of the recent oversold, but the photovoltaic sector made up for the decline. In the medium term, some leading stocks may still have adjustment space and time, and the recent rebound should also be defined as rebound. Affected by the delayed statement of the pilot real estate tax by relevant departments, the real estate industry chain performed well in the second half of the week. At the same time, it shows that there is still great pressure to maintain growth. It is expected that the market will still focus on the new and old infrastructure sectors related to maintaining growth.
Short term capital behavior does not change the medium-term trend. Investors should choose appropriate strategies and investment cycles according to the nature of funds. March gradually entered the forecast period of annual report and first quarter report, and performance became the core variable leading the market. However, the first quarter of 21 was mostly the high point of manufacturing performance. The sectors with good year-on-year growth of manufacturing performance in the first quarter of 22 were limited. Some upstream of Aerospace Military Industry sector and the first quarter report of civilian military enterprises may have a large probability of exceeding expectations, which can be paid appropriate attention to. Affected by the expansion of the scope and depth of sanctions against Russia, localization is still the focus of the capital market, the relevant benefit tracks will still be the focus of capital allocation, and specialization and innovation are expected to become a hot spot in the near future.
We believe that the downward systemic risk of the market will be temporarily alleviated next week. If the sector rotation is too fast, we should still control the position to defend and counterattack. The fundamental principle is to participate in the new hot spots as soon as possible, continue to avoid the sectors with funds holding together and rising too high, and operate with band ideas. For fundamental investment, we still suggest to select those specialized special new sub industries with better performance than expected in 21 years and continuous prosperity in 22 years for medium-term or above allocation. Focus on allocating oversold stocks with good fundamentals, and pay attention to sectors with strong certainty and reasonable valuation. In the medium term, we will still focus on the growth technology manufacturing enterprises matching the growth and valuation and the new high-quality track sector under the dual carbon background. We will continue to optimize the investment logic related to the import substitution logic of relevant advanced manufacturing sectors such as aerospace military industry sector (civil military participation, missile), new energy (wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy and nuclear energy) supported by performance or growth expectations. At the same time, Continue to moderately hold the targets of the science and technology sector (third-generation semiconductor, big data, automotive intelligence, mini led and VR) at the inflection point of prosperity.
The relevant marks are related to the following: Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) 197 etc.
Market performance
This week, the Shanghai stock index fell 1.77%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.94%, the gem rose 0.234%, and the China Securities 1000 fell 1.59%.
The wind tertiary industry index machinery industry fell 1.59%, ranking 29 / 62 in the industry growth week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.19 percentage points. In the machinery industry of wind tertiary industry index, the top five stocks with weekly gains were Hangzhou Everfine Photo-E-Info Co.Ltd(300306) , Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) , ST King Kong, Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) and
Bisen Smart Access Co.Ltd(301083) , up 67.89%, 25.71%, 20.23%, 18.99% and 18.55% respectively. The top five stocks with declines were Wenyi Trinity Technology Co.Ltd(600520) , Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co.Ltd Tianjin(603969) , Zhangjiagang Haiguo New Energy Equipment Manufacturing Co.Ltd(301063) , Zhejiang Zhongjian Technology Co.Ltd(002779) and Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , with declines of – 17.91%, – 17.55%, – 14.83%, – 14.67% and – 13.31% respectively.
The market index generally fell slightly this week, but the gem closed red, and the performance of the machinery sector was OK. The companies with the top ten increases increased by more than 10%, and the companies with the top seven decreases by more than 10%. The overall rise of individual stocks in the industry was more or less.
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. New high conversion efficiency! Hjt is expected to usher in the outbreak period in advance (Financial Associated Press)
\u3000\u30002. 95%！ The production efficiency of the new hydrogen electrolysis unit broke the record and the cost also fell sharply (Financial Associated Press)
Risk tips
The promotion and implementation of industrial policies are lower than expected, the change of market style has brought down the valuation center of the machinery industry, the pressure on profitability caused by rising costs, and the systemic risk caused by the spread of epidemic abroad.
