Core view
The economy continued to recover, and the investment in infrastructure and real estate performed well. In the first two months of this year, the national broad infrastructure investment increased by 8.61% year-on-year, and the real estate development investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The construction performance in the industrial chain was relatively good, and the performance of front-end sales and new construction was under pressure. Specifically, from January to February, the housing construction area increased by 1.8% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 9.6%, the new construction area decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, and the completed area of housing decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. On the whole, under the background of "steady growth", infrastructure investment has good support, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy implementation is expected to continue to promote the project construction to completion, and the back-end performance of the industrial chain is expected to be relatively better.
Cement production has declined and demand is recovering in an orderly manner. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the national cement output was 199 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, the second lowest level since the same period in 2011, only higher than the same period in 2020 affected by the epidemic. The decline of cement production is mainly due to: ① the impact of insufficient funds in the real estate market since the second half of last year is still on the low rate of project commencement and the slowdown of construction progress;
② the epidemic situation is repeated in many places across the country, the return of workers after the festival is affected, and the commencement and resumption progress of the project is relatively backward compared with previous years; ③ The awareness of industry self-discipline was further improved, and the off peak shutdown time was prolonged in some regions. With the clarification and strengthening of the goal of "steady growth" since this year, the downstream demand is recovering in an orderly manner, and the cement demand of the whole year is well supported.
In the short term, affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic, the construction progress of the project was limited to a certain extent this week, and the shipment progress was improved to a certain extent, but it was relatively limited. In terms of price, the southern region maintained an upward trend, and the quotation in the northeast region returned to a reasonable level from a high level due to the demand just started, which led to a slight decline in the national average cement price from 0.26% to 513.8 yuan / ton month on month. After the epidemic was effectively controlled, The market demand is expected to be released in a concentrated release, and the market demand is expected to be expected to be released in a concentrated release, and prices will continue to be released. It is expected that the market demand is expected to be released in a concentrated release, and the price will continue to rise. It is expected that the market demand is expected to be released in a concentrated release, and the market demand is expected to be expected. The market demand is expected to be released in a concentrated release, and the market demand is expected to be expected. The price will continue the upward trend, and the price will continue to be a rising trend, with recommendations to recommend the 60058 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ;
Focus on low value and high-quality leaders. The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Glass: the market demand performance this week is general, and the new orders of downstream processing plants are limited. Among them, the recovery in the northern region is slow and the operating rate is low. At the same time, the delivery of manufacturers in some regions is limited, and the orders of processing plants in the Southern region are gradually restored. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of float glass in China's mainstream market this week was 226608 yuan / ton, down 4.95% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 42.07 million heavy containers, an increase of 2.09 million heavy containers month on month. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the order receiving of downstream processing plants and the digestion of social inventory; The medium and long-term technological upgrading of the glass industry is still the focus. It is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) .
Other building materials: ① glass fiber industry: this week, the trading of roving market recovered slowly, the price mainstream maintained stable operation, the winding yarn was basically stable, the price of composite yarn was loose, the price of electronic yarn market was still weak in the near future, and the short-term price may stabilize after adjustment; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, driven by the demand side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to be optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is recommended to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time. It is recommended to Ocean'S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; Higher than expected cost increase
