Core view
The "carbon magnesium" industry is expected to weaken the "carbon magnesium" supply chain. Yulin's blue carbon industry is developed. Local enterprises use blue carbon tail gas as fuel to refine magnesium. A circular economy industrial chain of "coal electricity blue carbon ferrosilicon metal magnesium aluminum magnesium alloy" has been formed. The production of magnesium from blue carbon tail gas accounts for about 64% of the country's total production capacity. Yulin region has accelerated the progress of capacity integration and established the world's largest magnesium industry group - Shaanxi Yulin magnesium industry. The group has 20 metal magnesium production enterprises with an original magnesium capacity of 550000 tons / year, which is expected to promote the healthy development of the industry. The blue carbon industry is greatly affected by environmental protection, dual control and other policies. The rectification notice of Yulin blue related enterprises in early 22 affected the production capacity of 15.35 million tons, accounting for 20.74% of the total local production capacity; Superimposed on the shrinking demand for calcium carbide and ferrosilicon in the downstream, the capacity expansion of Lantan was restrained, and the growth rate of original magnesium capacity slowed down. At the same time, the original magnesium smelting plant in Yulin area is backward. Due to environmental protection and dual control policies, there are many occasional production reductions and shutdown, and the capacity utilization rate is low. With the superposition of the two factors, it is expected that the supply of raw magnesium will shrink marginally in the future.
The continuous progress of magnesium deep processing technology helps to extend the downstream application scenarios. Large tonnage die-casting machines are becoming more and more popular in magnesium processing enterprises. Taking Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) as an example, the company has 24 large-scale die-casting units, of which the maximum tonnage can reach 5000t. The introduction of large tonnage die casting machine provides technical support for die casting of large-size magnesium structural parts. Existing enterprises have successfully produced large-size structural parts for automobile enterprises, with a weight of up to 15kg; Semi solid injection molding technology has obvious advantages in the forming of parts with complex shape and high density, and the production process is safer and environment-friendly. Chinese enterprises are speeding up the research and development of relevant technologies and equipment. According to the die casting weekly report, Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) and Ningbo Xingyuan Zhuo magnesium are cooperating to develop a large tonnage (2500t) semi-solid injection molding machine; With the maturity of technology and equipment, semi-solid injection molding technology is expected to be applied to the production of large magnesium alloy automobile structural parts in the future.
With the general trend of automobile lightweight, the large-scale application of magnesium automobile hub and magnesium battery pack structural parts is approaching. Compared with steel and aluminum wheels, the weight and energy consumption of magnesium alloy wheels are reduced by 41.3% and 23.68% respectively, and the energy consumption are reduced by 6.63% and 3.36% respectively. With the continuous upgrading of forming technology and the continuous layout of magnesium processing enterprises, the promotion and use of magnesium alloy wheels are expected to accelerate. In addition, some magnesium processing enterprises have successfully promoted magnesium battery pack structural parts to automobile enterprises, such as Ningde Wenda magnesium aluminum, a shareholding subsidiary of Sanxiang Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(603663) to develop magnesium alloy battery end sectors for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and have obtained batch numbers and imported products of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) multiple brands; The promotion of magnesium battery pack shell and magnesium battery pack support is also worth looking forward to. According to our prediction, under optimistic circumstances, by 2025, the demand for magnesium alloy of magnesium wheel hub and magnesium battery pack shell will increase by 238200 tons and 86900 tons respectively, and the demand for magnesium will be strongly supported.
The technical path of magnesium building formwork is unified, and the prospect of "magnesium replacing aluminum" is broad. Compared with aluminum building formwork, magnesium building formwork is lighter (about 25% weight reduction) and less likely to be corroded by cement (saving about 40 yuan / square meter of later cleaning cost); In the past two years, the production technical route of magnesium building formwork has been unified, die casting has become the preferred process recognized by the industry, and the production cost has decreased significantly, which is more economical than aluminum building formwork. Relevant enterprises, such as Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) etc., have begun to increase the investment and layout of magnesium building formwork. At present, the market share of aluminum building formwork is about 30%, and the market ownership is 70.5 million square meters; We predict that if magnesium building formwork replaces aluminum building formwork smoothly, the ratio of magnesium to aluminum is expected to reach 7:3 in the future, and the demand for magnesium will increase by 789600 tons.
Risk tip: policy uncertainty downstream demand is less than expected
