Core summary: the central government attaches great importance to the problem of power shortage in 2021, which requires the use of market-oriented means to ensure power supply. The reform of electricity marketization was accelerated. Looking forward to 2022, the first batch of eight spot pilot markets are expected to operate continuously throughout the year, the construction of auxiliary service market is expected to accelerate, and the transmission and distribution price of the new phase (20232025) will be approved. It is expected to continue to introduce important power market policies in 2022, among which the power generation operator sector deserves continuous attention.
Power generation side: distinguish the output characteristics of different power sources, pay attention to the regulation value, and price according to the effect. Coal power: (1) the yield is expected to rise. The spot market reflects the peak shaving value of coal and electricity; The spot market and the medium and long-term market operate in linkage. The medium and long-term market presents the characteristics of financialization. Coal and electricity can lock the lower limit of yield through the medium and long-term market and arbitrage through the spot market. The auxiliary service market further reflects the value of coal power frequency modulation and standby. (2) The potential growth rate of new energy installed capacity may be higher. Power system regulation capacity is increasingly scarce, and enterprises with regulatory resources have the advantage of expanding new energy projects. Hydropower & Nuclear Power: it may be difficult to further improve the proportion of market-oriented electricity and electricity price during the year. First, after the full marketization of industrial and commercial users, the gap of cross subsidies has further increased. Low-cost hydropower and nuclear power are important sources of cross subsidies on the power side, and there is pressure to further reduce their planned power; Second, under the downward pressure of the economy, low-cost hydropower and nuclear power can subsidize power grid enterprises to purchase electricity on behalf of users (mostly small, medium-sized and micro enterprises), which meets the current policy requirements; Third, it has been able to obtain reasonable income under the existing pricing. Whether it should enter the market to obtain higher income is still controversial. New energy power generation: the spot market and auxiliary service market bring downside risks to the rate of return (in essence, new energy pays regulation service fees for thermal power and other controllable units), but the green power market brings environmental premium. In the future, policies may balance the two markets and give new energy power generation a relatively reasonable rate of return. Electricity value and environmental value are separately priced or better models, but at present, the green power market combines the two types of values, and the market mechanism still needs to be straightened out.
Power grid side: all coal power, industrial and commercial users have entered the market, which has further narrowed the purchase and sales price difference of power grid enterprises, and highlighted the problem of cross subsidy gap. During the verification of transmission and distribution electricity price this year, the solution of cross subsidy may be involved, which may have an impact on industrial and commercial users and power generation operators.
User side: the spot market operates, brewing the user side blue ocean market. When there is only medium and long-term market, the power selling company is a stable profit spread model; After the linkage operation of the spot market and the medium and long-term market, the power selling company has changed into an “insurance company” model with high technical barriers. Companies lacking professional ability in the power market are difficult to survive, and thermal power operators have obvious advantages. In the long run, companies that have the ability to integrate user side resources and can build virtual power plants and integrated energy systems can be expected to develop.
Risk factors: 1. The economic situation deteriorated and the growth rate of power consumption decreased significantly, resulting in the slowdown of power market reform; 2. It is difficult to fully liberalize the floating range of electricity price, and the implementation of the policy is less than expected.
