Event: as of March 18, 2022, a total of 28 listed companies in the automotive sector (Shenwan) disclosed their performance in 2021 (12 issued Annual Reports + 16 issued performance letters). Among them, there are 25 auto parts enterprises / complete vehicle enterprises / auto service enterprises respectively.
Overview: the recovery of automobile market drives the recovery of annual performance in 2021, but 4q21 is significantly under pressure
1. In 2021, the revenue and profit increased year-on-year. In 2021, China’s passenger car wholesale sales increased by + 6.7% year-on-year. Among the 28 companies that have disclosed their performance, the proportion of revenue / deduction of non parent net profit to achieve year-on-year growth reached 100% / 93% respectively. The main reasons for the performance growth are generally the improvement of the market share of major customers, the effectiveness of market development and the upgrading of product structure. On the whole, the annual performance trend of the sector is boosted by the recovery of the car market.
2. Parts sector: 4q21 is significantly under pressure. Select the parts sector with the largest number of disclosures for research. The annual revenue / parent company profit of the parts sector in 2021 were + 42% / + 18% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the revenue of 4q21 was + 2.5% / – 33% month on month, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 45% / – 49% month on month. Due to the less than expected recovery of the overall vehicle market demand and the pressure on the cost side of bulk raw materials and freight, the parts sector was generally under pressure.
Profit analysis: multiple factors put pressure on the gross profit margin, and reducing fees and increasing efficiency is the main focus
1. Gross profit margin: it is obviously affected by the rise of raw material prices. The gross profit margin of 12 listed companies that have disclosed their annual reports has declined. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of raw material expenses of 6 companies that have disclosed their raw material expenses in 2021 is significantly higher than that of their revenue, which suppresses the gross profit margin. In addition, factors such as the lack of core in downstream vehicles affecting demand and the sharp rise of sea freight are also the common reasons for the decline of gross profit margin.
2. Expense side: the overall rate of three expenses is down, and the R & D investment continues to increase. 1) The expense rate of three fees (sales + Management + Finance) decreased as a whole. At present, among the enterprises that publish annual reports in the automobile sector, the proportion of companies with a year-on-year decline in the three fee rate is 83% (10 / 12); 2) R & D expenses generally increased, and the R & D expense rate remained at a similar level in the same period. Among the 12 companies that published annual reports, the proportion of companies with year-on-year increase in R & D expenses was 92% (11 / 12); In terms of R & D expense rate, 6 of the 12 companies have slightly increased their R & D expense rate.
3. Net interest rate: year-on-year decline is the mainstream, mainly due to the decline of gross profit rate. Among the 28 listed companies, 61% (17 / 28) have a year-on-year decline in net profit margin, which is expected to be mainly under pressure from the decline in gross profit margin. We believe that the cost control of each company, government interest subsidies and subsidies have played a certain supporting effect on the net interest rate.
Investment suggestion: for the whole vehicle, it is suggested to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . Suppliers of automotive electronic related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and increase in price and volume in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + brake by wire), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
