On a month on month basis, since 2008, copper, aluminum, steel and plastics, the main bulk raw materials of household appliances, have experienced the first cycle (09q1-15q4), the second cycle (16q1-20q2) and the third cycle (20q3 to now). We resumed the first two cycles from three aspects: price increase, gross profit margin restoration and competition pattern.
In the first cycle, the raw material cycle lasted the longest. At that time, the household appliance industry had not yet entered the reshuffle period, which superimposed the impact of household appliances going to the countryside, and the price increase was lower than that in the second round; The white electricity gross profit repair elasticity is the largest; The concentration of power grid has been improved during the downward period of raw materials.
In the second cycle, the price increase of raw materials in the upward stage was stronger than that in the previous round, and the price increase of ice washing was the most sufficient. Compared with the previous round, the enterprise has stronger toughness, less impact on the profit side and faster repair. It is more fully reflected in the relative concentration of the market.
The growth rate in the rising stage of the current round of raw material cycle is fast. On a year-on-year basis, the peak appears in 21q2 ~ Q3. At present, the year-on-year growth rate of copper, aluminum, steel and plastics has decreased to 17%, 54%, 8% and 5%. Since 21q1, the price increase of household power has been significantly accelerated, and the price increase on the line is higher than that off the line. In terms of profitability, the overall pressure from 20q4 is gradually obvious, the impact on small kitchen appliances is more obvious, and the pressure on kitchen electric raw materials is the most lagging.
Build a two-dimensional variable of raw materials + price increase to calculate and analyze the impact of this price increase: 1) calculate and analyze the electricity category. Under the pessimistic situation, the gross profit ratio of empty ice kitchen washing is – 4.4, – 5.4, – 5.0, – 2.5pct respectively; In neutral case, + 2.9, + 3.0, + 3.0, + 1.9 PCT respectively; Under optimistic circumstances, + 8.3, + 9.2, + 8.8, + 5.2pct respectively. 2) Calculated by the branch company. At the current time point, the price increase factor is not considered, and the change of gross profit margin of white power enterprises in 21q2 is less than that of small household appliances.
The peak of year-on-year growth of raw materials in this round is transmitted to the report end. It is expected to be 21q4-22q1, or it will be the most difficult time for home appliance enterprises in this round, and Q2 may be expected to improve. On the basis of the better competition pattern formed in the second cycle, the share of white electricity increased faster and the leading pricing power further improved in this cycle; At the same time, the emerging categories represented by clean, projection and integrated stoves accelerated product upgrading and raised prices, which well responded to the pressure brought by the rise of raw materials.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which has significant advantages in high-end and steady and continuous improvement in profits, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , which has strong cost control and gradually opened a new growth curve, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , which is driven by two wheels of floor washer and sweeper, and which has strong product and brand power, Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has significant advantages in strategy, channel and marketing, and Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , which has continuous demand and huge overseas space potential.
Risk tips
1) risk of continued rise in raw material prices. If the price of raw materials remains high or continues to rise due to the impact of the international situation, it will continue to put pressure on the company’s profits.
2) the terminal demand is less than the expected risk. Since the epidemic continues, residents have a strong willingness to save, and the consumption of durable consumer goods is generally weak.
3) risk of high-end transformation of enterprise products. High end needs to be upgraded in the whole industrial chain of procurement, R & D, channel and marketing, and needs long-term verification in the consumer market.
