\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Events
The company released the performance express for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.577 billion yuan (+ 32.58%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.380 billion yuan (+ 44.74%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.290 billion yuan (+ 45.58%). 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.396 billion yuan (+ 14.27%); The net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.18 yuan (- 0.81%); Deduct 378 million yuan (- 5.50%) of net profit not attributable to parent company.
Key investment points
The performance is in line with expectations, and the potential energy of Dongzang Series in 21 years continues to be released
In a single quarter, the company's 21q4 profit growth slowed significantly month on month, mainly due to: 1) the rhythm of payment collection confirmation; 2) Expense confirmation: the company focused on 21q4 and accrued part of 21q3 and 2q1 expenses, mainly because the company was ready to make a good start. Throughout the year, the company's performance is brilliant, and the potential energy of Dongzang continues to release: 1) in terms of product structure, it is expected that the proportion of Dongzang series revenue will increase from 30% + to nearly 40% in 21 years, of which the growth rate is 20 9 16 6, and the proportion of revenue above dong9 will reach 50% +; 2) In terms of market channels: in terms of channels, the company adheres to the omni channel operation, and the core prefecture level city is the mode of customer department + branch company, which basically does not release the agency right. In terms of market, it has been driving in Hefei and Lu'an in Western Anhui for 21 years, with strong development momentum.
Actively optimistic about a good start, higher profits than expected, high growth can be expected
In terms of the progress of getting off to a good start, the proportion of the company's getting off to a good start is required to reach 50%, the dealers have basically completed it, and Hefei has generally exceeded the plan; During the Spring Festival, the sales volume of the company increased significantly, and the demand for replenishment began to increase significantly under the background of the first year's sales expansion and the second year's sales expansion; In terms of price, during the Spring Festival, the overall price of the company was stable, and the profit of Dongzang series was significantly higher than that of the mainstream Hui liquor competitive products.
The mainstream upgrade price band of the card slot + enjoy the market expansion bonus in the province, and the release of Dongzang potential energy is expected to exceed expectations
1) in the short term, the strong rise of Dongzang series + channel thrust to consumption pull + group purchase (focusing on medium and high priced wines) has continued to increase, which has helped the driving profit performance exceed expectations;
2) in the medium and long term, strong brand power + high channel profit + mainstream price band of card position, low consumer loyalty + strong channel strength enable Dongzang series, with a total volume of 1.7-1.8 billion (revenue accounting for nearly 40%) in the six years after listing. It is expected that the high growth of Dongzang series will lead the company's annual performance to exceed expectations, and Dongzang series may achieve more than expected development (revenue accounting for or exceeding 50%) in the next three to five years.
Profit forecast and valuation
In 2021, the company will continue to optimize production quality improvement, sales reform (merger and integration of sales subsidiaries, simplification of management links and enhancement of marketing management), brand empowerment (upgrading of "three actions" system engineering), management upgrading, etc. Benefiting from the expansion bonus of the sub high-end liquor track where Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) ecological Dongzang series is located, the revenue growth rate is expected to be 32.6%, 25.9% and 18.6% respectively from 2021 to 2023; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.9%, 32.6% and 19.0% respectively; EPS is 1.7, 2.3 and 2.7 yuan / share respectively; PE is 34, 26 and 22 times respectively.
Catalyst: continuous consumption upgrading and smooth introduction of high priced products;
Risk warning: the two outbreak of China's epidemic situation affects the whole Baijiu sale of liquor. The sales of high-end liquor was less than expected; Management change risk.
