\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 345 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) )
Performance review
On March 18, the company released the performance express for 21 years, with a revenue of 4.651 billion yuan, an increase of 44.65%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 353 million yuan, an increase of 152.88%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 330350 million yuan, deducting 342 million yuan, an increase of 155.46%, and slightly higher than the previous forecast of 320340 million yuan.
The net interest rate of 21 years is 7.6% (+ 3.3pct), the deduction of non net interest rate is 7.4% (+ 3.4pct), the basic earnings per share is 0.4 yuan, the same increase is 150%, and roe10 02%（+5.93PCT）。
Business analysis
The growth rate of gold + bonus at the end of q21 was lower than that of q21, and the net profit was mainly lower than that of q21. Quarterly, 4q21 revenue was 1.202 billion yuan, 1-4q21 + 82.6% / 47.6% / 27.2% / 33.9%, a compound increase of 8.2% / 20.6% / 12.9% / 17.3% over 19 years, and Q4 growth accelerated; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 4q21 is 68 million yuan, 1-4q21 + 562.5% / 167.3% / 23.5% / 15.3%, a compound increase of 9.2% / 39.3% / 16.6% / turning losses into profits over 19 years; 4q21 deducted 66 million yuan of non parent net profit, and 1-4q21 turned loss into profit / increased by 193.5% / increased by 25.7% / increased by 8.2% respectively in each quarter, a compound increase of 11.0% / 48.6% / 17.4% / turned loss into profit compared with 19 years. 4q21 net profit growth slowed month on month, which is expected to be related to the repeated impact of the epidemic in many places on the operating efficiency of stores in the fourth quarter. The quarterly net interest rates of 1-4q21 are 9.4% / 8.2% / 7.2% / 5.7% respectively, and the deducted non net interest rates are 9.0% / 8.1% / 6.9% / 5.5% respectively.
Sales from January to February are expected to be beautiful, the epidemic situation is repeated in March, and some consumer demand is expected to be released later. From January to February, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 19.5% under the high base, far exceeding the social zero of 6.7% in the same period; The gold price was – 4.2% / + 0.7% year-on-year in January / February. It is estimated that the growth of terminal retail sales is mainly driven by volume, and the company is expected to have beautiful sales from January to February. In March, due to repeated outbreaks in many places and limited offline passenger flow, the company’s offline sales will be affected to some extent. At the end of February, the Russian Ukrainian war broke out and the current situation is not clear. Under the influence of risk avoidance and inflation, the price of gold fluctuated greatly. The company’s traditional gold jewelry revenue accounts for 20% ~ 30%. The rise of gold price has a positive impact on its gross profit margin and has little impact on the fashion jewelry business.
Investment advice
The company’s performance has achieved rapid growth in the past 21 years. In the future, it will accelerate the expansion of franchise stores and sink channels, benefit from the rise of self pleasing + younger consumer demand, and have sufficient development power. It is estimated that the company’s EPS in 21-23 years will be 0.39/0.46/0.54 yuan respectively, and the current corresponding PE in 22 years will be 12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The terminal consumption is weak, the expansion of franchise is less than expected, and the gold price fluctuates.
