\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 283 Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021: the operating revenue was 4.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%.
Comments:
The sales volume of heavy trucks fell back in 21 years, and the performance of the company was better than that of the industry. (1) In the whole year of 21 years, the sales volume of trucks in China reached 4.288 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and the production and sales status declined; The annual sales volume of heavy trucks was 1.395 million, down from the historical peak last year. In this industry, the company achieved a revenue of 4.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.60%, an operating profit of 620 million yuan, an increase of 5.48% over the same period last year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%. Its performance is better than that of the industry. (2) Since the second half of the year, the sales volume of heavy trucks has decreased significantly due to the decline in demand, high raw material prices, chip shortage and other reasons caused by the completion of the switching of laws and regulations in five countries and six countries. The company achieved revenue of 696 million in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 42.23% and a month on month decrease of 30.54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.64% and a month on month decrease of 25.76%.
Scale effect, cost reduction and efficiency increase, superimposed business expansion, and outstanding profit margin. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 30.63%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.93pct and a month on month increase of + 7.18pct; The net interest rate was 13.97%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.11pct and a month on month increase of + 0.80pct. In recent years, the company’s profit margin has maintained a good improvement trend, which we believe benefits from: (1) wide product coverage, perfect industrial chain, high market share and scale effect. The company is the largest professional manufacturer of crankshafts in China and the largest manufacturer of expanding broken connecting rods for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in China. The market share of the company’s medium and heavy engine crankshaft is 60%, the market share of light engine crankshaft is 30%, and the market share of medium and heavy engine connecting rod is 40%; (2) Intelligent manufacturing and efficient production to promote cost reduction and efficiency. In recent years, the company has accelerated the automation transformation of production lines. At present, it has 47 automatic / intelligent production lines, more than 2000 main equipment, and the coverage of automatic production lines has reached 81%.
The air suspension business is progressing rapidly, and it is expected to rebuild a “Tianrun” in the medium and long term. The company focused on the air suspension business of the secondary industry, realized the diversified layout of products and formed the second growth curve. Air suspension business is the new business segment of the company in 2020. In 2021, the operating revenue was 204 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 253.16%, accounting for 4.31% of the company’s operating revenue. In 2022, the company plans to invest in a new rubber suspension production line, a semi-trailer air suspension production line, a semi-trailer axle assembly line, a CDC solenoid valve production line and a CDC solenoid valve assembly line; At the same time, it is planned to invest in the passenger car air suspension laboratory. In the future, the supporting customers of new products are expected to gradually expand from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles. In the short term, we expect that the air suspension business will contribute 560 million yuan and 1.21 billion yuan in revenue from 22 to 23 years; In the long run, the company’s air suspension business is expected to reach a revenue scale of 5 billion yuan, and the new business is expected to rebuild a “Tianrun”.
Investment suggestions:
Since the sales volume of heavy trucks has declined significantly year-on-year since 2022, we have lowered the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 660 million and 800 million to 550 million and 700 million yuan in 22-23 years, corresponding to 16 times and 13 times of PE respectively. In view of the strong competitiveness of the company’s traditional main business, the rapid promotion of the second main business of air suspension and more diversified development in the future, we maintain the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the sales volume of heavy truck industry continues to decline, the development of connecting rod business is less than expected, and the progress of air suspension business is less than expected.
