\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.4%.
Continuous growth in the cycle. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non recurring profit was 2.57 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 42.5%. The non recurring profit and loss was mainly the sales profit of rhodium powder. The annual gross profit margin / net profit margin / period expense rate were 30%, 17.1% and 13.4% respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 2.9, + 6.6 and – 0.1 percentage points. The net operating cash flow of the whole year was 3.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and all operating indicators were good.
The glass fiber boom is high, and the company has rich profits. It focuses on the implementation of supply in 22 years. In 2021, the company’s glass fiber revenue was 8.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.6%, and its net profit was 2.89 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 151.3%. We estimate that the annual sales volume is 1.11 million tons, the average price per ton (excluding non economic) is about 7236 yuan / ton, the average price increases by about 915 yuan / ton year-on-year, the net profit per ton (excluding non economic) is 2097 yuan / ton, an increase of 1012 yuan / ton year-on-year, the price is at a high level, the profitability is greatly improved, and the cost per ton is effectively controlled.
Downstream, the price of wind power blades has been kept at the bottom, and the volume has gone out of the bottom. In 2021, the company’s leaf sales volume was 11.4gw, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, and the leaf revenue was 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%. We calculated that the annual average price was 610000 yuan / MW, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and the unit net profit was 45000 yuan / MW, a year-on-year decrease of 44.8%. From the perspective of quarterly structure, Q4 sales volume has returned to positive growth in 2021, and the volume has come out of the bottom. However, under the requirements of low power cost, the host price and blade price are conducted layer by layer, and the blade price Q4 is at the lowest level in history, and the price will continue to bottom. At the same time, the company announced the production expansion plan, which plans to expand the production of 300 sets and 200 sets of blades in Yulin and Yangjiang respectively, and the market position and market share are expected to continue to improve.
The expansion of diaphragm production has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the follow-up scale effect is expected. In 2021, the company shipped 680 million square meters of diaphragm a, with a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, and its revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 95.5%. The diaphragm has grown into a billion level business. The production expansion projects announced by the company in 2021 have been promoted in an orderly manner, of which 720 million square meters of production capacity of Inner Mongolia production line is expected to be put into operation in Q3 of 2022, and 1.08 billion square meters of production capacity of Nanjing is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22. At the same time, the company newly announced the Tengzhou production expansion plan, adding 560 million flat base film and 657 million flat coating projects to increase the long-term production capacity. It is expected that from the second half of 2022, the scale of the company’s diaphragm business will usher in a period of rapid growth. Considering the R & D promotion of the company’s self-produced equipment and the deepening cooperation with overseas customers, we are optimistic about the long-term development of diaphragm.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.67 billion yuan, 3.84 billion yuan and 4.52 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 11.6, 11.1 and 9.4 times respectively. We are optimistic about the company’s ability to cross the cycle and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber and wind power blades is less than the expected risk, and the business development of lithium battery diaphragm is less than the expected risk.
