\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
Event: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) 2021 achieved an operating revenue of 19.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.51%.
Comments: in 2021, the market share of the company’s total revenue and profit increased and the market share of output decreased. In 2021, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) operating revenue was 19.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.92%, and the total profit was 7.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 155.90%; In the same period, the growth rate of operating revenue of China’s glass fiber industry was only 21.4%, and the growth rate of total profit was only 95.5%. From the perspective of operating revenue, the market share of the company in 2021 was 15.84%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.45 percentage points, and the total profit accounted for 24.11%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.45 percentage points. However, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) output was 2.351 million tons in 2021, accounting for 37.68% of the national output, but decreased by 0.93 percentage points year-on-year.
Product structure optimization brings new growth. In 2021, the proportion of revenue and profit industry increased, and the proportion of output decreased mainly due to the optimization of product structure. In 2021, the prosperity of the glass fiber industry reached a record high. Various production lines in the glass fiber industry were fully produced, and the total national production increased rapidly, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the company’s output. However, the comprehensive price increase of China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) products is higher than the industry level, and the production cost is lower than the industry level when the low-cost moat continues to be expanded, reflecting the optimization of the company’s product structure and the continuous improvement of cost advantage. For example, the comprehensive price of the company’s products in 2021 was 75.84 million yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 43.42%. In the same period, from the price of Taishan glass fiber, Chongqing International and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ‘s alkali free 2400 direct winding yarn, the average price in 2021 was 606765 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, lower than the comprehensive price and growth rate of China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) products have increased the proportion of high-end products, making the company’s revenue and profit grow rapidly at the industry level. The optimization of product structure has become a new space for the company’s development.
The new demand of wind power, automobile and electronics brings new development under the advantage of low cost. Under the dual carbon policy of China and the world, wind power and other new energy have broad development prospects. The development of new energy vehicles and vehicle lightweight has brought more demand for new glass fiber products. The demand for electronics and building energy conservation is also increasing. The new demand for glass fiber materials is constantly expanding, laying the industrial foundation for the optimization of the company’s product structure. With the production of 60000 tons of electronic yarn production lines in 2021 and 100000 tons of electronic yarn production lines in 2022, the company’s electronic yarn production capacity has doubled, laying a capacity foundation for product structure optimization.
At the same time, the new production line has a large single line scale and a high level of intelligence, so as to further reduce the comprehensive cost and consolidate the invisible moat of the company. With the consolidation of low-cost advantages, the optimization of product structure enables the company to fully benefit from the expansion of new demand in the industry and bring new development space and growth to the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 6.727 billion yuan, 7.800 billion yuan and 9.022 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.68, 1.95 and 2.25 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 10, 8 and 7 times the PE value from 2022 to 2024 respectively. Optimistic about the company’s low-cost moat, the optimization of product structure brings new development, and maintains the company’s “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion speed of new demand is lower than expected.
