\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 036 Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) )
Core view
Management changes have been implemented, focusing on the long-term development of optical industry. In December, the management of the company was changed. Dr. Zeng Jiyong, the former president and general manager of the optical business department, was promoted to the chairman and director of the strategic committee. The vice president team of key personnel of the optical business such as Dr. Wang Zhuo, Hu Junjian, Wang Tao and Li Liang was established to highlight the importance of the strategic level on optical academic affairs and lay a foundation for long-term development. Dr. Zeng Jiyong is a postdoctoral candidate in optical engineering in the Department of fine instrument of Tsinghua University, with profound technical and industrial background. In the recent 22-year equity incentive plan, the company first proposed the revenue target of vehicle optics, requiring that the main revenue of 22 / 23 / 24 is not less than 10 / 12 / 14 billion yuan, and the revenue of vehicle optics is not less than 5 / 10 / 1.5 billion yuan, or the net profit attributable to the parent company is not less than 90% / 160% / 200% higher than that in 20 years, demonstrating the confidence and determination to focus on the cause of vehicle optics. Recently, the company released the second phase of employee stock ownership plan, including 18 directors (excluding independent directors), supervisors, senior managers, middle-level managers of other companies and subsidiaries and core backbone. It plans to invest 50-100 million yuan to buy the company’s shares from the secondary market. We believe that this can effectively combine the interests of shareholders, the interests of the company and the personal interests of the core team, so that all parties can pay common attention to the long-term development of the company.
Automatic driving accelerated, and the on-board camera increased by 10 billion US dollars. The volume and price of the track increased simultaneously. As a sensor that can read the “content” information, the on-board camera helps to realize 80% of the automatic driving function. Over the past 21 years, Weilai et7 & et5, jikrypton 001, Xiaopeng P5 and Jihu hi have carried more than 10 body cameras, mainly with 5-8 million high pixels. 8m HD camera is becoming the standard configuration of high-level autonomous vehicles, driving the volume and price of on-board cameras to rise simultaneously. We estimate that in 25 years, the global car camera market scale (excluding SOC chip and system integration) is expected to reach US $10.5 billion, 20-25ecagr21%. At the same time, the improvement of pixels leads to the upgrading of the difficulty of optical calibration of the module. With the reconstruction of the automotive supply chain system and the improvement of the voice of optical component manufacturers, it is expected to enter the module field. Lianchuang has become the exclusive supplier of seven 8madas camera modules of Weilai et7 & et5, opening a broader blue ocean market.
Forward looking R & D and cost advantages shape sustainable competitiveness, and the moat continues to deepen. The company’s core technologies such as molding aspheric glass are leading the industry, and its customers are high-quality. It has a solid cooperation with new forces such as Tesla and Weilai, as well as automatic driving solution providers such as Mobileye and NVIDIA. While enjoying the initial dividends of the industry, it has brought long-term forward-looking R & D advantages and cost advantages of large-scale production through long-term in-depth binding with key customers and its own technical strength, Consolidate the leading position of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We lowered the company’s earnings per share for 21-23 years to 0.18/0.42/0.62 yuan (the original forecast for 21-23 years was 0.29/0.47/0.66 yuan, mainly due to the increase of vehicle project R & D and the increase of 21-year R & D expenses). According to the 22-year 48 times PE valuation level of the comparable company, the corresponding target price was 20.17 yuan, maintaining the buy in rating.
Risk tips
The penetration rate of automatic driving is lower than expected, the shipment of optical lens is lower than expected, and the risk of gross profit margin decline.
