\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Core view
The company released the annual report of 2021: the revenue was 225102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 140.80%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 14.681 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 132.21%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 56.127 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 36.67% and a month on month increase of – 5.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.72% and a month on month increase of – 6.08%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 4.191 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 153.08% and a month on month increase of – 4.25%. The company achieved its best year in history.
The commodity boom cycle is at a high point, and the production and sales of core minerals are expected to continue to grow rapidly. The output of main mineral products of the company in 2021: 47.45 tons of mineral gold, a year-on-year increase of + 17.28%; 584200 tons of mineral copper (including 41900 tons of equity output of kamoa copper industry), a year-on-year increase of + 28.92%; 434400 tons of mineral zinc (lead), a year-on-year increase of + 14.81%; 309 tons of mineral silver, a year-on-year increase of + 3.34%; 4.25 million tons of iron concentrate, a year-on-year increase of + 9.71%. In the annual report, the company also gives the output guidelines for 2022: it is estimated that the mineral copper is 860000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 47.21%; 60 tons of mineral gold, a year-on-year increase of + 26.45%; Lead mineral + 100000 tons (year-on-year); 310 tons of mineral silver; 3.2 million tons of iron concentrate; It is estimated that the investment expenditure for project construction (including technical transformation) is planned to be 20 billion yuan.
The “dual energy” strategy of the company gives birth to the “double energy” policy. We believe that 2021 is the key year for the company to achieve strategic extension. In addition to the rapid increase in the output of the original advantageous minerals such as gold, copper and zinc mines, and the successive production of three world-class copper mines, namely kamoa kakura copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, peji copper gold mine in Serbia and Julong copper mine in Tibet, the company also completed the M & A of the world-class high-grade 3Q lithium salt lake project in Argentina and officially entered the new energy metal track. In the annual report, the company emphasizes that it will vigorously promote the rapid transformation of resource advantages to economic and social benefits, fully promote the breaking of the construction of 3q lithium salt lake heavy project in Argentina, and promote the contribution increment of electrolytic copper foil, lithium iron phosphate, hydrogen energy and other investment projects to form synergy. 2022 is expected to be a key year for the company to achieve breakthroughs in lithium battery new energy materials, opening up new growth space. The first phase of 3q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023.
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project does not meet the expectation, and the sales price of mineral products does not meet the expectation.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 2551 / 261.9/265.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3% / 2.7% / 1.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 227.2/25.8/26.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.9% / 10.4% / 7.2%; Diluted EPS is 0.86/0.95/1.02 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 12 / 11 / 10x. Considering that the company is the core target of China’s nonferrous listed companies, with rich mineral resources reserves, accelerating internationalization process, strategic extension, active layout of new energy and new materials industry, clear medium and long-term growth path, it is expected to become a world-class international mining enterprise in the future and maintain the “buy” rating.
