\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Investment suggestion: at present, the market still has doubts about the rising trend and development sustainability of Dongzang. We believe that the launch time of Dongzang products is short, the channel profit is opaque, the products are still in the rising cycle, and the possibility of sudden flameout is low when the consumption atmosphere in the province is gradually rising. For the sustainability of Dongzang's development, the company's current volume of dong6 + 9 is still small compared with Gujing's volume of gu5 + gu8. When competing products are more focused on the sub high-end price band, product dislocation competition gives dong6 + 9 development opportunities. Secondly, the current channel profit of Dongzang products is opaque and profitable, and the channel thrust is strong. Yingjia adopts the channel operation mode of small business system + deep distribution. It has strong control over the channel terminal. With the continuous improvement of the treatment of salespeople, the enthusiasm of salespeople is expected to continue to rise. At present, the Dongzang series has initially gained a firm foothold in markets such as Lu'an and Hefei. The development market of 100200 million in the province is expected to reproduce the model markets such as Hefei, so as to further promote the volume of Dongzang series. The potential market is expected to gradually break through under the penetration and rendering of the consumption atmosphere in the province. Jiangsu is the main market outside the province. At present, Dongzang series is initially introduced. Relying on the brand and channel operation advantages in Jiangsu Province for many years, the product upgrading outside the province can be expected. We estimate that the company's EPS will be 1.71, 2.28 and 2.88 yuan / share in 21-23 years, and the peg will be 0.9 in 20-22 years, corresponding to 34.4xpe in 2022 and a market value of 63.3 billion yuan. We will give a "buy" rating.
In private enterprises, the helmsman has both management and technical background. Yingjia completed the restructuring earlier, and realized the withdrawal of all state-owned equity in 2003, becoming a private enterprise with Flexible Equity mechanism. Ni yongpei, the core leader, has worked in the winery for nearly 50 years. In 2011, he was awarded "Chinese brewing master", with rich experience in management and technology. Other core management teams, such as Yang zhaobing, have also worked in the winery for many years and held certain shares through the group, with internal incentives in place. The product end adopts the follow-up strategy. The gold and Silver Star Series launched in 2003 was successfully built into a large single product. The Dongzang series was launched in 2015, and the product can be continuously upgraded.
The mainstream price band of dong6 + 9 card position, product dislocation competition, large channel thrust and gradual improvement of brand potential. Anhui's strong economic growth has continued to drive Baijiu consumption upgrading in the province. The current mainstream price belt in Anhui is shifting from 100200 to 200+. Compared with competitive products, it is now more focused on the secondary high-end, such as Gujing jujiaogu 16 + 20, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) launched Jianxiang 518, and Dong 6 + 9 precision card with a price band of 100300 yuan, forming a dislocation competition with competitive products and enjoying the upgrading bonus of the mainstream consumption band. For the consumption at the terminal price of 100300 yuan, the channel potential energy has a great impact. The launch time of Dongzang series products is relatively short, the channel profit is not transparent, and the channel thrust is relatively strong. The brand ends, focusing on the concept of ecological Baijiu, and competing with the focus of the year series to form differentiated competition. At the same time, as the carrier of the brand, the hole hidden in the middle and high-end price belt is expected to gradually improve the potential energy of the driving brand. The channel management and control end adopts the operation mode of small business system + deep distribution. The channel terminal has strong control. The number of dealers and business personnel has continued to increase in recent years, promoting the deep cultivation and sinking of the channel.
It is expected to continue to replicate successful model markets such as Hefei in the province, and the product upgrading outside the province can be expected. In terms of the market in the province, the model markets Hefei and Lu'an continue to be intensively cultivated, the development markets such as Fuyang are expected to replicate the model market, and the potential markets such as Wuhu are expected to gradually achieve breakthroughs. On the whole, the current volume of dong6 + 9 is still far behind that of gu5 + 8. With the gradual rise of the consumption atmosphere of Dongzang in the province, dong6 + 9 is expected to achieve rapid volume. Jiangsu and Shanghai are the main provinces outside the province, with high per capita consumption level. Dongzang series is currently in the stage of market introduction. Relying on the brand and channel advantages of Yingjia, which has operated in Jiangsu market for many years, it is expected to gradually upgrade products and realize two wheel drive inside and outside the province.
Stock price catalyst: regional expansion in the province exceeded expectations, and product upgrading outside the province exceeded expectations.
