\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Events
On March 17, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.9%.
The sales of varicella vaccine, especially nasal spray influenza vaccine, is affected by the epidemic situation. With the recovery of terminal vaccination resources, it is expected to recover in the future
1) affected by covid-19 epidemic and covid-19 vaccine centralized vaccination, the sales volume of some products decreased. In particular, covid-19 vaccination at the age of 3-17 was launched in the second half of 2021, and the applicable population of nasal spray influenza vaccine was also at the age of 3-17. The sales of nasal spray influenza vaccine was greatly affected. In 2021, the production of varicella vaccine was 8.56 million and the sales volume was 8.11 million. The production of influenza vaccine was 3.99 million and the sales volume was Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) . 2) The provision for asset impairment increased because the nasal spray influenza vaccine was produced / sold seasonally (valid for 10 months), and the company made an inventory impairment provision of 863897 million yuan in 2021.
3) continue to increase R & D investment. In 2021, R & D investment was 193 million yuan, accounting for 16.03% of operating revenue. With the recovery of terminal vaccination resources, it is expected to recover in the future.
The application for production of herpes zoster vaccine was carried out in an orderly manner, and the construction projects invested by raising funds were steadily promoted
The phase III clinical field work of herpes zoster vaccine has been successfully completed and the application for production has been actively promoted. At present, the relevant work of the application for production of the vaccine is being carried out in an orderly manner. We expect it to be approved for listing in 2023; The phase I clinical trial of DPT vaccine (three components) was started; Nasal spray of live attenuated influenza vaccine (liquid preparation) obtained clinical approval and started phase I clinical trial.
The fund-raising construction projects were carried out in an orderly manner, and the construction of live attenuated varicella vaccine with an annual output of 20 million people, live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine project, adsorbed acellular DPT (three component) combined vaccine project with an annual output of 6 million people, and nasal spray influenza live attenuated vaccine (liquid preparation) project with an annual output of 10 million people were completed.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Considering the repeated epidemic, we lowered the operating revenue forecast from 2022 to 2024 to RMB 1.549/2.276/2.640 billion (the previous value was RMB 1.839/2.631 billion from 2022 to 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 28.84% / 46.97% / 15.97% respectively, and the predicted net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 416 / 6.31/771 million (the previous value was RMB 521 / 788 million from 2022 to 2023). Considering that with the recovery of terminal vaccination resources, the performance of conventional vaccines is expected to recover, and the company’s production of herpes zoster vaccine is steadily advancing, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated and the sales are less than expected, the sales of influenza vaccine is less than expected, the research and development progress is less than expected, and the approval progress of herpes zoster vaccine is less than expected
