Looking back on the A-share market last week, in the first two trading days, A-shares suffered a severe setback under the influence of multiple factors. After the venting of irrational emotions, the negative impact was weakened, and there were positive signals on the policy side. A-shares staged a violent pull-up and a continuous V-shaped reversal pattern, driving the market back to normal.
As stated by Chuancai securities, it is currently at the time point of overseas geopolitical game, with large fluctuations in energy prices and bulk commodities, temporary weakening of capital liquidity at home and abroad, and corresponding adjustment of A-share valuation. However, the recent rebound logic from banks, securities companies to the overall rise of the market, basically established the emergence of the bottom of the A-share policy. In the medium and long term, we are not pessimistic about the A-share market .
From a technical perspective, Dongguan securities mentioned that last Wednesday’s big index achieved three consecutive positive results, the northward capital showed a net inflow trend, the profit-making effect was excellent, and the market sentiment continued to repair and pick up, with the continuous promotion of the steady growth policy, it is expected that the future market will fluctuate and stabilize, paying attention to the volume and energy and the changes of the epidemic situation in China . In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, building materials, steel, electrical equipment, TMT, etc.
In terms of the future market, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that with the positive changes in the market environment, the market will enter the pit filling market in the future three bad news began to show subtle changes: first, on March 17, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike, which led to a sharp rise in U.S. stocks on the same day, and the factor of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike was nearly price in; Second, there are signs of easing the peripheral conflicts, and the impact of this factor on risky assets may be weakening; Third, since late February, the epidemic situation in China has suddenly rebounded rapidly at many points, which has aroused market concerns about economic data. Looking back on the four complete rise and fall cycles of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in 2005, the time and space of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 adjustment has been very obvious. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is not high, and the PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, all A-Shares and all A-share industries are at a historical low.
The institution further analyzed that FSB meeting boosted market confidence and steady growth policy driven pit filling market . On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. This meeting released a strong signal to maintain the stable development of the capital market, which will play an important role in stabilizing market expectations and boosting market confidence. At present, the steady growth monetary policy and fiscal policy have been implemented and achieved practical results, and the market has also launched the pit filling market.
In addition, the convening of the gold stability meeting marks the re establishment of the policy bottom. Looking back, is the stock market rebounding or reversing? After the bottom, how should the market choose in this regard, Guosheng Securities said that does not rule out the possibility of double bottom . There is a high probability that the policy will take effect from the end of the policy to the end of the market, but there is no clear time lag relationship. The core of the reversal of the market trend lies in whether the landing effect of the policy can really solve the core contradiction at that time.
Referring to how the downward trend of the market was reversed in 2018, at the end of July 2018, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed “six stabilities”, the end of macro policy appeared, and the market changed from unilateral decline to weak shock; From October to November, the first bank and the two sessions expressed their support for the capital market, and the market started a monthly rebound, followed by a second bottom; Until the beginning of 2019, the central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement to confirm the lowest point of the index, and then the credit data in January greatly exceeded expectations, the main rising market was established. For the moment, the possibility of a second bottom dip cannot be ruled out until there is a substantial improvement in “internal stagnation” + “external inflation”.
However, in any case, the bottom area has appeared, the short-term 50 uncertainty is still the highest, the rebound elasticity of oversold growth stocks is greater, and the medium-term main line remains to be determined in the future no matter whether it is a double dip or not, we believe that the area near 3000 ( Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 50) corresponds to the bottom of the market, and 2022 is not a bear market .
In the macro aspect, Xingzheng Securities believes that with the continuous release of China’s policy warmth, monetary and credit are expected to be loose. At the same time, risks such as overseas stagflation, interest rate hike, foreign capital outflow and China concept stock supervision are expected to be alleviated. The bottom of the market has appeared and will usher in a repair window . In terms of operation strategy, on the one hand, the pressure of scientific and technological growth, regardless of valuation or congestion, has been significantly improved, and the deterministic direction of performance (photovoltaic, semiconductor, energy storage, etc.) is configured at the bottom of the emotional repair window; On the other hand, the direction of “steady growth” is clear, and there is still room for repair in banks, real estate, etc.
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China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also said that recently, the market may be in the bottom grinding period, the trading volume may shrink, and the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended at present, we pay attention to three directions : 1. Potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand of real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc;
2. For the middle and lower reaches consumption with many adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3. The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, and the turnaround is waiting for the marginal mitigation of overseas “inflation” risk.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that current external risks have been significantly reduced, the bottom of profit is highly likely to appear under steady growth, and the market bottom is close to . The molecular end profit is expected to rise, the micro liquidity and risk appetite will be repaired, the short-term rebound will continue, and the medium-term market bottom is taking shape. In terms of industry configuration, focus on medicine, new energy, semiconductor and military industry that have fallen but have a high degree of prosperity, policy oriented old and new infrastructure, and expected improved TMT, machinery, electrical equipment, consumption, etc.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that around the characteristics of low risk, looking for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement . In terms of investment, we should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors.
specifically, there are three directions : 1) to G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Along the direction of inflation: coal and chemical resources; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu and so on.
