When the spring equinox comes, a new green appears on the willow tips. The spring thunder moves suddenly, the climate is mild, the rain is abundant and the sun is bright. Everything in China is full of vitality. Spring pipe, spring ploughing and spring planting are about to enter a busy stage.
In this mid spring season, Mo Zhao, a jujube farmer in Xinzheng City, Henan Province, who has been planting jujubes in Baodi, Xinjiang for many years, gathered several jujube circle friends to come to the entrance of the Yellow River Garden. First, he appreciated the spectacular opening of the river in spring, and second, he took the opportunity to ask some friends about the expectation of the red jujube market, so that he could make plans early. After all, the plan of the year lies in spring!
\u3000\u3000 "Today, some of our old friends are watching the waves of the river at the entrance of the Yellow River Garden. They can't help but remind me of the spot price of jujube in the past year. They are going to go back to Aksu, Xinjiang to accompany the old jujube trees. What advice do you experts in the jujube industry have? In the face of the current quotation of 12000 yuan / ton of jujube futures, should I cut some jujube trees to grow cotton or manage them carefully? Can the new dates sell at a good price as last year when they come down this year? Will the market still offer opportunities? " Just after his ass fell on the low stool in Xinyang fisherman's farmyard, Lao Mo couldn't wait to ask questions.
As the general manager of a large jujube company, Chu Guojun has been responsible for the design of the company's Jujube futures and spot hedging scheme, and has rich practical experience in futures and spot business such as futures and spot combination, hedging arbitrage, risk control financing, position management, basis trading and so on. Looking at the expectant eyes of his old friend, he was filled with emotion. In July 2021, a strong wind blew down the green jujube all over the ground. When he went to Aksu for research and came to Laomo's jujube garden, the man could scratch his scalp in a daze. After exchanging with him the view that the reduction of production may lead to the price rising to a high level for many years, the man picked up his spirit and continued to maintain the green jujube for the rest of his life. After the jujube was planted in October of that year, the spot price of red jujube kept oscillating upward, The price of the main jujube sold in the old jujube garden in November 2021 has not been reduced by more than 18180 yuan, and the price of the main jujube in the old jujube garden in November 2021 has not been reduced by more than 18180 yuan. Of course, the company also made a lot of money because of its grounded decision-making and in place market analysis. Therefore, the company and the team brought back a pile of cash rewards at the end of the year.
"If you think about whether the current futures disk price has fallen below the warehouse receipt cost price, have you thought about the reasons for the decline of jujube price? If you think about it, you will know what to do next." Chu Guojun told Lao mo.
Lao Mo touched a thin long face and said, I don't understand. Obviously, the production has been reduced so much. Now the level 3 and level 4 jujubes in the spot market are still in short supply. Why doesn't anyone want the warehouse receipt of red jujube futures with better quality? The dates with good quality on the spot market are not as good to sell as in previous years. You'd better analyze it.
"At the beginning of May, the price of 220t futures has fallen. I don't believe that many people have written my view on the price of 220t futures at the beginning of May, 2021." Brother Peng, a little angry old futures, was a little anxious and hurriedly pulled out the jujube analysis report he was proud of from his bag.
After receiving the report from brother Peng, Lao Mo read it with both hands. "How long can the date price last?" It turns out that this is the "culprit" that has been circulating in the market for several months.
Brother Peng wrote in the report that since mid July 2021, stimulated by the theme of production reduction, the scale of jujube futures market has expanded rapidly and the price has continued to rise. The term price of the main 2205 contract has risen from the low point of 9935 yuan / ton to 18180 yuan / ton, an increase of 83%. After December 2021, the dust on the subject of production reduction has settled. When a large number of spot red dates began to be sold, the market environment has undergone a sudden change.
"Do you understand the reason for the decline in jujube prices?" Looking at Lao Mo's seriousness in reading the report, Chu Guojun couldn't help but say, Lao Mo, it's very simple to sum up. The current real price pressure is too great, and the consumption of red dates is really unsatisfactory. Now, although the price of jujube has fallen back to the original point when it rose last year, and has fallen below the warehouse receipt cost price, we are still waiting and watching. However, there is good news to tell you that there are more people talking about warehouse receipt repurchase of jujube futures in the current market, and traders and downstream wholesalers and retailers are also willing to receive goods. It is estimated that the bottom of spot price of jujube is forming.
Brother Peng is a serious and enthusiastic person. Seeing that Lao Mo still looks dizzy after listening to Chu Guojun, he took Lao Mo to sit aside and chat.
First of all, let's review the history of jujube spot market. The price of red jujube basically remained at 5 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan / ton around 2000, and rose to the peak of more than 30000 yuan / ton in 2011. Since then, it has continued to fall to about 9000 yuan / ton in 2019 (the price of red jujube in Cangzhou red jujube trading market meets the requirements of benchmark delivery products of red jujube futures). Stimulated by the high price of more than 30000 yuan / ton in 2011, the planting of red jujube in Xinjiang has advanced by leaps and bounds, and the dry jujube (mainly gray jujube and Jun jujube) in the mainland has gradually lost its competitiveness and basically withdrew from the market. In 2016, the national output of red jujube was 6.23 million tons, which was the peak of annual output, including about 2.7 million tons in Xinjiang (data from China forestry statistical yearbook). Around 2019, the purchase price of grey jujube currency in Xinjiang was as low as about 2 yuan / kg, which greatly dampened the production enthusiasm of jujube farmers, and some trees were cut down and some seeds were abandoned. In the middle of July 2021, the news of the disaster and production reduction in the main production area of grey jujube in Xinjiang came out, and investors with a keen sense of smell in the futures market were moved by the news. Then, in the process of rising jujube prices, jujube futures warehouse receipts began to register and stay in the futures market.
Secondly, the development and changes of the spot market in the early jujube period are also basically in line with the prediction of long investors. However, the final trend of price depends on the relationship between supply and demand, which is also the biggest focus of differences between the long and short sides of the market. We need to find out how much of the country's red jujube production is consumed as dry jujube and how much is consumed as fresh jujube? Among them, the most core is the annual output of dried red jujube corresponding to the delivery of red jujube futures? After repeatedly thinking about the above problems and constantly seeking confirmation, some personal opinions that may not be mature have been initially formed. First, because the competitiveness of the mainland is far less than that of Xinjiang, the market has gradually formed a pattern in which mainland red dates are mainly fresh dates and Xinjiang red dates are mainly dry dates; Second, the terminal consumption of jujube has declined in recent years, which is not only the result of the change of people's consumption habits (reducing the consumption of high sugar food and advocating healthy diet), but also related to the frequent covid-19 epidemic in recent years and the reduction of people's communication, gift giving and dining out; Third, according to the data from relevant institutions, in recent years, the total annual purchase amount of Xinjiang gray jujube currency in normal years is about 800000 tons, and that of Jun jujube is about 400000 tons; Fourth, in the past few years, when the annual output exceeded the sales, the market accumulated a large amount of surplus Chen jujube inventory.
To sum up, I think the supply of Chinese jujube market in 2021 is still considerable, and the price increases greatly. When jujube is not a necessity, high prices have a great inhibitory effect on consumption. After the comparison between supply and demand, the annual balance is expected to be quite large. Obviously, if investors only pay attention to the production reduction of grey jujube and do not pay attention to the reality of large surplus inventory, if they only pay attention to the production reduction of northern red jujube producing areas due to the rainy weather in October, but do not pay attention to the consumption characteristics of fresh jujube in Inner real estate areas and dry jujube in Xinjiang producing areas (consumers will not eat more dry jujube because they eat less fresh jujube), and do not pay attention to the overall situation of oversupply of dry jujube, they may be blinded by one leaf.
Finally, the relationship between supply and demand is the core and fundamental to determine price changes. Although the price of jujube rose with the help of the theme of production reduction, it finally came down when a large number of futures warehouse receipts were registered. At present, spot sales are flat and light, and traders are afraid of high prices and cautious. As the Spring Festival consumption season has become a thing of the past, the market has been falling endlessly. In fact, in the early rise of jujube futures price, bullish investors are also "digging holes" for themselves, and are gradually trapped by the solid warehouse receipts. Unconsciously, they have cultivated a super opponent that they can't beat - up to tens of thousands of tons of solid warehouse receipts. You can't beat or get rid of these firm offer warehouse receipts - once the warehouse receipts are registered, they can be pledged to offset the trading margin, and there will be no cutting positions due to insufficient margin.
Smelling the ground pot stewed chicken on the Yellow River Beach floating out of the kitchen of Xinyang fishermen's farmyard, the sauce smell of the local chicken is getting stronger and stronger. After the Spring Festival in 2022, He Jun, a jujube merchant who has run through the red jujube markets in Ruyi city in the South and Cangzhou in the north, can't sit still. Several old jujube people come together to talk about business, watch the meat stew in the pot, and don't come to talk about how to drink. When friends get together, they can't talk about making money.
"Brother Peng and Lao Mo, come here quickly. I'll share with you the actual situation of my research. After talking, I'll drink and eat meat. After the spring equinox, the days and nights are long and short. There's no good dream to do. I'd better go back to Xinjiang and pack up the jujubes to ensure a good harvest in the new season." He Jun shouted.
"Has jujube been forgotten by investors, from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the sharp decline of China concept shares, and then to the information that China and the United States maintain good communication, which has attracted everyone's attention, and where to build the bottom after the price of jujube fell from 18000 yuan / ton to 12000 yuan / ton?" He Jun said that today we will simply sort out the basic situation of current red dates.
First, inventory. The peak consumption season of jujube is coming to an end, and the consumption is more than half. At this time, the inventory data is very important. We can summarize the early delivery and consumption, and judge the future supply and demand according to the inventory, which plays a connecting role. According to our comprehensive data sample statistics from processing and marketing areas such as Xinjiang (origin), Cangzhou, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou and Xi'an, the current stock removal rate is about 70%, about 45% in the same period last year, and the stock removal rate is 25%. Among them, the inventory in the sales area is weak, especially in ruyifang, Guangzhou. The land is small and the inventory is expensive. In addition, it is not optimistic before last year. Most of them do not leave inventory. They buy as they buy, and there is little inventory. In addition, the inventory decline in Cangzhou and other places is also large. At present, it is the middle of March. Judging from the current shortage of grade III and IV jujubes, the market supply and demand may gradually reach a tight balance. After the market consumes all the old jujubes that have been precipitated for several years, the gap will gradually appear, the consumption is relatively stable, and there is no room for price decline. As for the upward space, it depends on the gap and consumption in the later stage.
Second, the price. According to the benchmark delivery price, the current selling price in Xinjiang is 1250013500 yuan / ton, and the market selling price in Cangzhou is 1150013500 yuan / ton. Many people think that the current production and sales are upside down. The red dates from Xinjiang plus the freight to Cangzhou are about 600 yuan / ton, and they can't be sold in Cangzhou. But you should know that Cangzhou is not the main battlefield of consumption delivery grade red dates, and the super grade of Cangzhou is the first grade standard in Xinjiang, Cangzhou market sales of goods at this level account for less than 30% or less of Xinjiang.
The average cost of red jujube delivery products produced in 2021 is 14 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / ton. Even the cost of aged jujube will not be less than 12500 yuan / ton. The acquisition cost of Cangzhou traders is about 11500 yuan / ton. The difference mainly comes from the quality.
At present, the futures price has been significantly lower than the warehouse receipt cost, but is the current futures price warehouse receipt corresponding to the spot attractive? The delivered products are divided into grades A, B and C, corresponding to Cangzhou super special, super grade and grade I warehouse receipts of nearly 90000 tons, of which grade C accounts for 40%, and the contract term price of 2205 is 12000 yuan / ton. The buyer's delivery is based on the disk discount of 1800 yuan / ton, minus the Xinjiang Cangzhou premium of 600 yuan / ton, and the actual discount of 1200 yuan / ton. The actual price of Cangzhou receiving grade C (grade I) is 10800 yuan / ton, 105120 yuan / ton lower than the actual price of Cangzhou. It is profitable, at least more cost-effective than going to Xinjiang to collect the original jujube spot. Pipi jujube was 3 yuan / kg in 2020, and currently it is 7.5-8 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of about 240%. 3、 Level IV: 4-5 yuan / kg in 2020 and 8-8.5 yuan / kg at present, with a year-on-year increase of about 180%. At present, the supply of goods is in short supply, and there was a phenomenon of non receipt and rush purchase in Xinjiang.
Third, the focus of the market. From the perspective of the futures market, the current price has been very attractive to spot traders, which is much lower than the original cost of collecting new dates. For investors holding short positions, the biggest advantage is the daily quantity of warehouse receipts. For a variety with only tens of thousands of positions, the quantity of warehouse receipts has reached 17559 hands, and the effective forecast is 1137 hands, which is a little unbalanced. From the perspective of cost value, the current futures price has been discounted to the spot. When it comes to the acquisition cost, the bottom of the spot will only rise gradually, and the discounted futures have a sufficient margin of safety.
He Jun finally concluded that the reduction of grey jujube production in 2021 is a "natural and man-made disaster", half of which is due to the decline of unit yield caused by low prices hurting farmers, reduced planting area and insufficient input and care, which is a "man-made disaster". The other half is due to the hot dry wind and autumn rain disasters that have not happened for many years, which are natural disasters. Natural disasters can be recovered, but the "man-made disasters" need some time to recover. No Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , which has been greatly reduced by "natural and man-made disasters", will recover its output in a short time. The same is true for red dates. Even if the weather is good in 2022, it is impossible to double the output and return to the output level in 2018. Therefore, the current red jujube of about 12000 yuan / ton is already a value area, and the red jujube forgotten by investors may come to the moment of "desperate rebirth". Lao Mo, go back to Xinjiang and plant jujubes. It's probably a good harvest year.
After being "talked about the past and the present" by three friends, Lao Mo knew more or less about the current jujube market and felt that the good days were still ahead, so his mood gradually became "bright" like the spring sunshine. He grabbed the wine bottle with pride and poured a full cup for each person, and urged the owner of the farmyard to serve a sector of stewed pig liver, a sector of ginger juice lotus root, a sector of fried peanuts, a sector of cold ham sausage and a sector of garlic juice amaranth, Another lively competition began between good friends. A small jujube tree planted at the door of the farmyard seems to have sprouts. It is estimated that the cheeks of several jujube circle people will be as red as the futures jujube to be delivered soon. All dreams in spring are good because there are good days to realize.
