From the financial committee meeting, it still highlights the characteristics of the word “stability” this year. The economy should be stable, the capital market should be stable, and the real estate market should also be stable. With the stabilization of the index, we believe that the first counterattack of this year has begun. When others panic, this year’s opportunity has emerged.
This week, the market was restrained first and then raised. The policy bottom was basically established at the mid week meeting of the financial committee. The problems that plagued the market before are being solved or expected to be improved one by one.
The meeting of the finance committee can be compared with the role of October 2018. At that time, the market experienced an accelerated decline after adjustment for more than half a year. After the meeting, a series of stabilization policies were issued, and the market established a market bottom of 2440 points at the end of the year. This meeting can be said to be a remedy for the symptoms, highlighting the importance of the current capital market.
The meeting directly faced the five major problems worried by the current market. The first is macroeconomic operation. The meeting called for “effectively invigorating the economy in the first quarter, taking the initiative to respond to monetary policy, and maintaining moderate growth in new loans”. It is expected to usher in an increase in steady growth, especially the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates; The second is about real estate enterprises. The meeting added “timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation of new development model”. Then, the CBRC conveyed that it would “actively promote the transformation of development mode of the real estate industry, encourage institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects with difficulties”, It is expected that the supervision of real estate enterprises will be loosened and the merger and reorganization will be accelerated; The third issue is about the governance of the platform economy. The meeting requested that “the rectification of large platform companies should be completed as soon as possible, and the red and green lights should be set up to promote stable development and improve international competitiveness”. It can be seen that Internet enterprises will not be suppressed in the future, but will be encouraged in the future; Finally, the meeting pointed out that “at present, the regulatory authorities of China and the United States have maintained good communication and made positive progress.” The probability of forced delisting of medium concept stocks in the short term is very low.
Judging from the meeting of the finance committee, it still highlights the characteristics of the word “stability” this year. The economy should be stable, the capital market should be stable, and the real estate market should also be stable. With the stabilization of the index, we believe that the first counterattack war of this year has started. After that, with the prevention and control of the epidemic and the landing of overseas confirmed events, the market is expected to return to the market of shock repair; When others panic, this year’s opportunity has emerged.
(the author is Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Research Director)
